[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281043
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Oct 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to enter the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, then move
southeastward through the weekend. Fresh to strong northerly winds
will follow behind the front and should reach gale force at the
western Bay of Campeche, offshore from near Veracruz, Mexico on
Sat afternoon. Seas are expected to build and reach 8 to 9 ft
through Sat evening. Please refer to the High Sea Forecast issued
by NHC at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shmtl for more
information.

Eastern Caribbean Heavy Rainfall: A deep-layered trough continues
to persist near 69W over the eastern Caribbean Basin. Abundant
moisture along with divergent winds aloft are triggering
widespread heavy showers and strong thunderstorms from the
Windward Islands northwestward to Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands, including Trinidad and Tobago. Locally heavy rainfall
will elevate the potential for flooding in these locations today.
Please visit the National Weather Service San Juan Forecast
Office website at www.weather.gov/sju for the latest details on
heavy rainfall and flooding in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. For the Windward Islands, refer to your local weather
offices for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 23W
from southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands at 11N southward, and
moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails
from 02N to 10N between 21W and 26W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 51W from 19N southward,
and moving west at about 10 kt. Very dry air at low to mid levels
are hindering significant convection near this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is mostly confined over the African continent.
The ITCZ stretches west-southwestward from well south of the Cabo
Verde Islands at 06N24W to 03N48W. Scattered moderate convection
prevails up to 180 nm along either side of the boundary between
26W and 37W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning for the western Bay of Campeche.

A weakening stationary front curves southwestward from near Tampa,
Florida to 23N89W to 26N96W. To the NW, scattered moderate
convection has developed N of 28N and W of 93W. Otherwise, the
southern periphery of a 1034 mb high over the Great Lakes is
supporting gentle to moderate easterly winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft
across the eastern and central Gulf, and Bay of Campeche.
Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail
for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the front will dissipate towards the morning.
Moderate to fresh return flow will prevail across the W Gulf
through this morning ahead of the next approaching cold front
expected to enter the NW Gulf this afternoon. The front is
expected to push off the Texas coast this evening and move SE
through the weekend. Fresh to strong N winds following the front W
of 94W through Sat afternoon. Brief gales are expected across the
Veracruz area Sat afternoon. The front will reach the Florida
Panhandle to central Bay of Campeche by Sun afternoon before
stalling and gradually dissipating.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section for more information on
widespread convection and associated heavy rainfall over the
eastern basin, including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Moderate to fresh easterly trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are
evident across the eastern basin. Gentle to moderate N to NE
trades with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the deep layered upper trough N to S across the
central Caribbean will lift northward into the Atlantic this
weekend. An area of low pressure is expected to form over the
eastern Caribbean this weekend, possibly related to the southern
portion of an existing trough of low pressure over the area.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression could form early next week
while the disturbance moves generally westward or west-
northwestward over the central Caribbean. This system has a low
chance of development in the next 48 hours and a medium chance in
the next 5 days. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to
continue through the weekend with the trough and potential
developing low.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A stationary front extends southwestward from off the Carolina
coast across 31N79W to over northern Florida. Aided by divergent
southerly flow related to a robust upper-level trough near 72W,
scattered showers are occurring north of 24N between 60W and 68W.
A surface trough extends from 24N50W to 21N50W. To the east,
another trough extends from 27N35W to 22N35W. A third surface
trough is analyzed from 30N22W to 26N28W. Scattered showers are
only noted in the vicinity of the third trough. Surface ridging
prevails across the eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1017 mb high
centered near 24N30W.

Large northerly swell is generating 8 to 10 ft seas west of the
Canary Islands north of 25N between 20W and 45W. Fresh to strong
southerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are seen north of 22N
between 63W and 69W. Otherwise, the modest central Atlantic ridge
is supporting light to gentle winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft north of
18N between the northwest African coast and Georgia-Florida
coast. To the south, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to
ESE trades with 4 to 6 ft seas are present north of 06N between
the central African coast and Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate
southerly trades with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the rest of the
Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough over the
southwestern Atlantic will continue to produce scattered showers
and thunderstorms mainly between 60W-70W. A surface low pressure
system is forecast to emerge along the northern portion of the
trough axis today, and some subsequent development could occur
through Saturday. By late Saturday, upper-level winds are forecast
to become less conducive for development, and the low is expected
to begin interacting with an approaching frontal system. This
system has a low chance of development in the next 48 hours and 5
days. A frontal system to the north of the area will interact with
the low and could bring moderate to rough seas in NE swell
through the weekend west of 70W.

$$
ERA
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