[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272345
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Oct 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to enter the
western Gulf of Mexico Fri night. The front will extend from
southeastern Louisiana to the western Bay of Campeche by Sat
afternoon. Gale force NW winds are expected offshore of Veracruz
Mexico on Saturday, behind the front. Seas are forecast to build
to 10 ft there Sat afternoon. Winds and seas will diminish Sat
night.

Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands Heavy Rainfall: A deep layered
trough continues to be situated along 69W. Periods of moderate to
locally heavy rainfall continue to be possible through tonight.
Localized flooding is possible. Please visit the National Weather
Service San Juan website at www.weather.gov/sju for the latest
details on heavy rainfall and flooding in Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W from 05N-18N, moving
W at about 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted
near the wave axis from 11N to 14N. Additional scattered moderate
convection is noted E of the wave from 11N-19N between 40W-45W.

The tropical wave that was previously analyzed along 68W has
merged with the deep layered trough situated along 69W in the
Caribbean. The tropical wave has been removed from the analysis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Senegal near 14N17W to 10N19W.
The ITCZ stretches from 10N19W to 06N22W to 06N46W, then continues
W of a tropical wave from 08N50W to 09N60W. Numerous moderate
scattered strong convection is noted from 04N to 09.5N between
15W-21W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
elsewhere from 01N-10N between 10W-39W. Similar convection is seen
from 08N-11N between 59W-62W, including over Trinidad.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from Clearwater, FL to 23N90W to
24N96W. Isolated showers are occurring near and north of the front
from 23N-25N between 92W-94W. Wind speeds are gentle east of 92W.
Moderate to fresh SE winds are over the far west-central Gulf,
off the coast of south Texas and NE Mexico. Seas are 3-4 ft in
this area, and 2-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate late
tonight. Moderate to fresh return flow will develop across the NW
Gulf tonight into Fri morning ahead of the next approaching cold
front on Fri afternoon. Fresh to strong SE winds are possible off
the southeast Texas coast. This next front is expected to push
off the Texas coast late Fri afternoon and move SE through the
weekend. Fresh to strong N winds will follow the front W of 94W
through Sat afternoon. Brief gales are expected across the
Veracruz area from Sat morning through the afternoon. The front
will reach from the Florida Panhandle to the central Bay of
Campeche by Sun afternoon before stalling and gradually
dissipating.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A deep-layered trough extends from N to S along 69W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection prevails across the
eastern Caribbean, east of the trough axis, including over
portions of the Virgin Islands, NE Venezuela and Trinidad. Fresh
ESE trade winds and 4-6 ft seas are occurring to the east of the
trough axis. Gentle N to NE winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail across
the remainder of the Caribbean Sea, west of 69W.

For the forecast, a portion of the deep layered trough across the
east-central Caribbean will lift northward into the Atlantic Sun.
An area of low pressure is expected to form over the eastern
Caribbean Sea this weekend, possibly related to the southern
portion of the aforementioned existing trough of low pressure over
the area. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form
early next week while the disturbance moves generally westward or
west-northwestward over the central Caribbean Sea. This system
has a medium chance of development within the next 5 days. Expect
scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue through the
weekend with the trough and potential developing low.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N78W to Cape Canaveral, FL.
Moderate N to NE winds are occurring well NW of the front, along
the coast off Jacksonville, FL and Georgia. Winds are gentler east
of the front and north of the NW Bahamas. A deep-layered trough
extends from 31N70W to 25N69W to 18N68W and into the Caribbean
along 69W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring along and
east of the trough axis, from 18N-31N between 61W-70W. Fresh S
winds are likely occurring within 180 nm E of the trough axis,
where seas are 4-6 ft. Seas of 3-4 ft prevail west of 70W.

Farther east, a surface trough extends from 31N21W to 26N28W to
25N34W. Cloudiness with isolated showers prevails from 15N-26N
between 20W-40W. Moderate to fresh E trade winds and 5-7 ft seas
prevail east of the Lesser Antilles to 50W over the tropical
Atlantic. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 5-6 ft seas are prevalent
within 240 nm either side of a line from 08N35W to the Cabo Verde
Islands. Moderate or weaker winds are found elsewhere. A large N
swell prevails across the waters north of 25N and east of 50W.
Seas of 8-12 ft are likely occurring north of 26N between 21W-47W,
highest near 31N33W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the trough along 69W is expected to
remain nearly stationary through Sat and maintain active
thunderstorms to the E. A surface low pressure system is forecast
to emerge along the northern portion of the trough axis tonight.
This surface low has a low chance of developing into a subtropical
depression during the next 48 hours while the system moves slowly
northward over the western Atlantic. By late Saturday, upper-
level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development,
and the low is expected to begin interacting with an approaching
frontal system. This strong frontal system to the north of the
area will interact with the low and could bring fresh to locally
strong winds and NE swell with it Fri night through the weekend,
west of 70W.

$$
Hagen
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