[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241035
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Oct 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0950 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 52W, south of 17N,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Strong upper level westerly wind shear
is displacing the scattered moderate isolated strong convection
mainly to the east of the trough axis, extending from 05.5N to 12N
and between 45W and 52W. Widely scattered moderate convection
dots the waters W of the wave axis, from 08N to 13N between 52W
and 55W. This wave is expected to reach 56W-57W by this evening.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 73W,
south of 19N, moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection associated mainly with the SW Caribbean monsoon
trough is located S of 14N between 73W and 84W. Deep layered upper
level troughing is expected to develop N to S across the central
Caribbean in the next few days, and will absorb this wave in the
vicinity of 75W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 15.5N17W and continues to 07.5N293W, where it
transitions to ITCZ, and continues on to 06N33W to 07N51W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from 09N to
13.5N E of 21W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 02N to 10N between 21W and 32W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure over the eastern United States extends southwestward
across the Gulf of Mexico to the Bay of Campeche, maintaining a
fairly dry weather pattern. The surface pressure gradient between
this ridge and the middle level remnants of Roslyn moving over
southern Texas r is resulting in fresh to strong S-SE winds over
the western Gulf waters, especially from W of 93W. Seas peaked
near 10 ft earlier tonight across the southern Texas coastal
waters, and were 5-9 ft in recent hours across these waters.
Moderate to fresh E to SE winds prevail elsewhere, except for
light to gentle winds in the NE Gulf. Seas are 45 ft in the
central and SE Gulf and 1-3 ft in the NE Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds across the western Gulf
will diminish slightly today, ahead of a cold front approaching
the coast. This front will move off the Texas coast early Tue
morning, and reach from Mobile Bay to the western Bay of Campeche
Tue night. The front will then slow down and weaken, and gradually
dissipate Wed night into Thu. In the wake of the cold front,
strong N winds are expected in the far NW Gulf Tue and in the far
W Gulf Tue afternoon through night. Fresh return flow will develop
across NW portions Thu night through Fri, ahead of the next
approaching cold front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the basin.

Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen across the waters
of Venezuela S of 12N between 65W and 69W, and extend well inland.
Otherwise, the remainder of the Caribbean Sea is dominated by a
dry stable environment that is suppressing any deep convection. A
sharp upper level trough extending across the central Bahamas to
Honduras is supporting widely scattered moderate convection N of
16.5N between 73W and 76.5W.

A weak pressure regime results in moderate trade winds prevailing
across the Caribbean, except for light to gentle winds in the SW
Caribbean. Seas are 3-5 ft in the NW, south-central and southeastern
Caribbean, while 1-3 ft seas are found elsewhere.

For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient across the regional
Atlantic and Caribbean will lead to gentle to moderate trade winds
and light to moderate seas through Wed. A deep layered trough is
expected to develop across the central Caribbean Tue through Thu
and will induce scattered thunderstorms across the basin E of 74W
during that time. Fresh to locally strong trade winds and
increasing E swell will move into Tropical Atlantic waters behind
a tropical wave Tue night, and gradually shift into the far
eastern Caribbean Wed night through Thu night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A lingering stationary front stretches from near 31N73W through
the central Bahamas to the NE coast of Cuba along 76W. Scattered
moderate convection is found within 90 nm W and 240 nm E of this
front. Overnight scatterometer data indicated that fresh to
strong NE winds were near the central and eastern Bahamas, likely
associated with the convection in the area. Elsewhere W of 70W,
gentle to moderate N to NE winds prevail,with seas of 4-7 ft in NE
swell.

In the north-central tropical Atlantic, a surface trough extends
from 33N59W to 25N58W, and is shifting westward at 15 to 20 kt. A
large area of scattered moderate to strong convection supported by
a broad upper level trough is occurring from 21.5N to 32N between
53W and 64W. Fresh to strong cyclonic winds and seas of 7-9 ft
are noted N of 27N and between 49W and 60W. The rest of the
tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad ridge centered between
the Azores and Bermuda. The pressure gradient between the ridge
and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustain fresh to strong
easterly trade winds from 08N to 21N and between 33W and 53W.
Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and seas
of 3-6 ft are prevalent elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, active weather will continue today
about the stationary front extending into NE Cuba along 76W. The
front will weaken and gradually dissipate through Tue. A broad
inverted trough will move W to along 63W today, then shift W and
reorganize along 71W Tue through Thu. The trough will drift E Thu
through Fri with low pres expected to develop near 29N70W by Fri.

$$
Stripling
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