[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Oct 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Satellite imagery and radar data indicate that convection has
begun to organize this morning associated with an area of low
pressure located about 130 nm ESE of Bermuda. A tropical or
subtropical cyclone could develop while it passes near Bermuda
later today and tonight. Afterward, the system is forecast to turn
northward toward cooler waters and less favorable upper-level
winds over the northwestern Atlantic, and further development is
unlikely by that time. Numerous moderate convection is observed
from 31N to 35N, between 60W and 64W. A recent scatterometer pass
found fresh to locally strong winds on the north side of the
disturbance, where seas are likely 8-10 ft. Due to the increase
in organization this morning, the formation chance has been
increased to medium.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 53W, from 05N to
18N, moving west at 5 knots. Strong upper level westerly wind
shear is displacing an area of scattered moderate convection
mainly east of the trough axis, extending from 07N to 13N, between
46W and 56W.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends along 74W, from
Colombia to Haiti, moving west at 5 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 11N to 16N, between 73W and 75W.
Deep layered upper level troughing is expected to develop N to S
across the central Caribbean in the next few days, and will absorb
this wave in the vicinity of 75W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 11N22W. The ITCZ continues from 11N22W to 09N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed along the monsoon trough from 10N
to 15N, between 16W and 23W. Widely isolated moderate convection
is observed north of the ITCZ from 06N to 13N, between 26W and
45W. Recent satellite derived observations found fresh NE winds
and 7-9 ft seas west of 35W, north of ITCZ and south of 20N.

A portion of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends across the
SW Caribbean, supporting scattered moderate convection from 09N to
12N, between 75W and 82W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure over the eastern United States extends southwestward
across the Gulf of Mexico to the Bay of Campeche, maintaining a
fairly dry weather pattern. The pressure gradient between this
ridge and lower pressure over Texas is supporting fresh to strong
S-SE winds over the western Gulf waters. West of 94W, buoys are
reporting seas of 6-9 ft north of 22N, and 3-6 ft south of 22N.
Moderate to fresh SE winds and 2-5 ft seas dominate the remainder
of the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong S winds will continue through
tonight across the far W Gulf W of 94W, ahead of a cold front.
This front will move off the Texas coast late tonight or early Tue
morning, and reach from Mobile Bay to the western Bay of Campeche
Tue night. The front will then slow down and weaken, and
gradually dissipate Wed night into Thu. In the wake of the cold
front, strong to locally near gale force N winds are expected in
the far NW Gulf Tue morning, off Tampico Tue afternoon, and off
Veracruz Tue night. Fresh return flow will develop across NW
portions Thu night through Fri, ahead of the next approaching cold
front, which should move off the Texas coast Fri night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the basin.

Scattered moderate convection is observed across the southern
Caribbean and northern South America, mainly south of 14N.
Otherwise favorable conditions prevail as a weak pressure
gradient results in gentle to moderate trade winds across the
basin and 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the regional
Atlantic and Caribbean will lead to gentle to moderate trade
winds and light to moderate seas through Wed. A deep layered
trough is expected to develop across the central Caribbean Tue
through Thu and will induce scattered thunderstorms across the
basin E of 74W during that time. Fresh to locally strong trade
winds and increasing E swell will move into Tropical Atlantic
waters Tue afternoon and gradually shift into the far eastern
Caribbean Wed night through Thu night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on a
tropical disturbance east of Bermuda.

A dissipating stationary boundary stretches along 73W in the
western Atlantic. This feature, combined with a sharp upper level
trough is triggering scattered moderate convection from 21N to
31N, between 69W and 76W. West of the boundary, winds are moderate
from the N-NE with 4-6 ft seas. East of the boundary, winds are
gentle to moderate from the east with 4-6 ft seas.

In the central Atlantic, a moist atmosphere is supporting an area
of scattered moderate convection from 20N to 30N, between 50W and
57W. Gentle anticyclonic flow dominates north of 20N with 5-7 ft
seas. In the eastern Atlantic, winds are gentle to moderate from
the NE with 6-8 ft seas in northerly swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, active weather continues along a
weakening stationary front from 31N73W to the southeast Bahamas.
The front will dissipate by tonight, but a surface trough will
remain in the area through at least Tue before dissipating. A
broad inverted trough extending from 31N61W to 26N64W will shift W
and reorganize along 71W Tue through Thu. The trough will drift E
Thu through Fri with low pres expected to develop near 29N70W by
Fri.

$$
Flynn
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