[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240444
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Oct 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0444 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 51W, south of
17N, moving W at 5-10 kt. Strong wind shear is displacing the
scattered moderate convection to the east of the trough axis,
extending from 05N to 17N and between 38W and 50W.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 72W,
south of 19N, moving W at 5-10 kt. No significant convection is
associated with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W and continues to 08N23W. The ITCZ extends from
08N23W to 08N37W to 08N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 06N to 12N and E of 23W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure over the eastern United States extends southwestward
across the Gulf of Mexico, maintaining a fairly dry weather
pattern. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the remnants
of Roslyn over NE Mexico result in fresh to strong S-SE winds
over the western Gulf waters, especially from W of 92W. Seas are
5-9 ft in these waters, with the highest seas occurring off
southern Texas. Moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail
elsewhere, except for light to gentle winds in the NE Gulf. Seas
are 3-5 ft in the central and SE Gulf and 1-3 ft in the NE Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh SE winds in the far NW Gulf will increase to
strong tonight and expand to waters W of 94W by Mon morning,
ahead of a cold front. This front will move off the Texas coast
early Tue morning, and reach from Alabama to the western Bay of
Campeche Tue night. The front will then slow down and weaken,
then gradually dissipate Wed night into Thu. In the wake of the
cold front, strong N winds are anticipated in the far W Gulf Tue
through Tue night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the basin.

A few showers are seen off northern Colombia and in the Windward
Passage, while the remainder of the Caribbean Sea is dominated by
a dry environment that is suppressing any deep convection. A weak
pressure regime results in moderate to locally fresh easterly
trade winds prevailing across the Caribbean, except for light to
gentle winds in the SW Caribbean. Seas are 3-5 ft in the NW,
central and eastern Caribbean, while 1-3 ft are found elsewhere.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the regional Atlantic
and Caribbean will lead to gentle to moderate trade winds and
light to moderate seas late into the coming week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front continues to stretch from near 31N73W to the
central Bahamas and scattered moderate convection is found within
200 nm on both sides of the trough axis. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass indicate that fresh to strong NE winds are found
near the central and eastern Bahamas, likely associated with the
convection in the area. Elsewhere W of 70W, gentle to moderate
winds. Seas of 4-7 ft prevail W of 70W.

In the north-central tropical Atlantic, a surface trough extends
from 34N56W to 25N55W and a large area of scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is occurring N of 22N and between 50W
and 62W. Fresh to strong cyclonic winds and seas of 6-9 ft are
noted N of 25N and between 49W and 60W. The rest of the tropical
Atlantic is dominated by a broad ridge centered between the Azores
and Bermuda. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressures in the deep tropics sustain fresh to strong easterly
trade winds from 08N to 23N and between 32W and 55W. Seas in these
waters are 6-9 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft are
prevalent elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, active weather continues within 120
nm W and 300 nm E of a stationary front from 31N72.5W to central
Cuba along 76W tonight. The front will weaken to a trough early
Mon, then gradually dissipate Tue. Low pressure will move WNW
through the far NE waters into tonight, bringing some fresh winds.
A broad inverted trough will move W to along 63W early Mon, then
shift W and reorganize along 71W Tue through Thu.

$$
DELGADO
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