[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232319
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Oct 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 50W, from
05N to 18N, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers are
noted along the wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends along 70W, from 05N to 18N,
moving west at 5 kt. No significant convection is associated with
this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 13N17W to 11N19W. The ITCZ
continues from 11N19W to 09N47W. South of these boundaries,
scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 09N between
13W and 23W. North of these boundaries, scattered moderate
convection is from 07N to 12N between 38W and 49W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends from the SE U.S. across the Gulf,
waters. Moderate to fresh southerly flow dominates the western
basin, with 4-6 ft seas. Winds are gentle to moderate from the E
across the remainder of the basin with 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, a ridge of high pressure across the basin will
shift NE through early this week. Fresh SE winds in the far NW
Gulf will increase to strong tonight and expand to waters W of 94W
by Mon morning, ahead of a cold front. This front will move off
the Texas coast early Tue morning, and reach from Alabama to the
western Bay of Campeche Tue night. The front will then slow down
and weaken, then gradually dissipate Wed night into Thu. In the
wake of the cold front, strong N winds are anticipated in the far
W Gulf Tue through Tue night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the basin.

Gentle to moderate NE winds dominate the NW Caribbean with 2-4 ft
seas. Moderate easterlies dominate the central Caribbean with 3-5
ft seas. Gentle easterly wind and 2-4 ft seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, weak pressure gradient will continue to support
gentle to moderate trade winds ands light to moderate seas into
late week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N72W, across the central
Bahamas to eastern Cuba near 21N77W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 21N to 31N, between 70W and 78W. Moderate
northerly winds and 5-8 ft seas west of the front. East of the
front and north of 27N, moderate southerly winds and 4-6 ft seas
dominate. Winds gradually increase and shift to fresh easterlies
with 6-8 ft seas east of 70W. South of 25N, winds are moderate
with 4-6 ft seas.

In the central Atlantic, scatterometer data identified a surface
trough with near gale for winds near 30N55W. Associated
convection remains disorganized, however this disturbance could
still acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics. The
current Tropical Weather Outlook assigns a low probability of
tropical cyclone formation through the next 5 days. Another
surface trough to the SE is supported by moist mid-levels and an
upper-level low to produce scattered moderate convection mainly N
of 21N.

To the east, a dissipating cold front stretches across the
eastern Atlantic from 31N10W to 23N25W to 30N40W. Behind the
front winds are gentle from the north with 8-10 ft seas,
primarily comprised of northerly swell. Ahead of the front winds
are moderate from the NE with 6-8 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will gradually
dissipate Tue. Low pressure will move WNW through the far NE
waters into tonight, bringing some fresh winds. A broad inverted
trough will move W to along 63W early Mon, then shift W and
reorganize along 71W Tue through Thu.

$$
ERA
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