[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Oct 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 48W, from 05N to
18N, moving west at 5 knots. Associated convection is isolated and
weak.

A western Atlantic tropical wave extends along 61W, from 05N to
22N, moving west at 15 knots. No significant convection is
associated with this wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends along 70W, from 04N to 18N,
moving west at 5 knots. No significant convection is associated
with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 13N17W to 12N18W. The ITCZ
continues from 12N18W to 07N44W. South of these boundaries, scattered
moderate convection is observed from 01N to 11N, between 10W and
30W. North of these boundaries, isolated moderate convection is
observed from 08N to 10N, between 35W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends from the SE U.S., across the Gulf,
to the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh southerly flow
dominates the western basin, with 4-6 ft seas. Winds are gentle to
moderate from the E across the remainder of the basin with 2-4 ft
seas.

For the forecast, a ridge of high pressure across the basin will
shift NE through early this week. Fresh SE winds in the far NW
Gulf will increase to strong tonight and expand to waters W of 94W
by Mon morning, ahead of a cold front. This front will move off
the Texas coast early Tue morning, and reach from Mississippi to
the Bay of Campeche Tue night. The front will then slow down and
weaken, then gradually dissipate Wed night into Thu. In the wake
of the cold front, strong N winds are anticipated in the far W
Gulf Tue through Tue night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating stationary boundary stretches across the NW
Caribbean, from central Cuba to Honduras. An area of scattered
weak convection is observed east of this boundary from 16N to
20N, between 74W and 79W. Otherwise, gentle to moderate NE winds
dominate the NW Caribbean with 2-4 ft seas. Moderate easterlies
dominate the central Caribbean with 3-5 ft seas. Gentle easterly
wind and 2-4 ft seas are observed elsewhere.

For the forecast, a stationary front from central Cuba to the N
coast of Honduras is dissipating this morning. Elsewhere, gentle
to moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas are expected
through mid-week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N73W, across the central Bahamas
to central Cuba near 22N78W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed east of this boundary from 21N to 31N, between 70W and
77W. Buoys are reporting moderate to fresh northerly winds and 4-7
ft seas west of the front. East of the front and north of 27N,
moderate southerly winds and 4-6 ft seas dominate. Winds
gradually increase and shift to fresh easterlies with 6-8 ft seas
east of 97W. South of 25N, winds are moderate with 4-6 ft seas.

In the central Atlantic, scatterometer data identified a sharp
surface trough with near gale for winds near 30N53W. Associated
convection remains disorganized, however this disturbance could
still acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics. The
current Tropical Weather Outlook assigns a low probability of
tropical cyclone formation through the next 5 days. Another
surface trough to the SE is supported by moist mid-levels and an
upper-level low to produce scattered moderate convection from 21N
to 28N, between 45W and 63W.

A weak cold front stretches across the eastern Atlantic from
31N13W to 25N25W to 31N40W. Behind the front winds are gentle from
the north with 9-11 ft seas, primarily comprised of northerly
swell. Ahead of the front winds are moderate from the NE with 6-8
ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough previously along
75W from the NW Bahamas northward has dissipated this morning. A
stationary front from 31N73W to central Cuba will weaken to a
trough tonight, then gradually dissipate early this week. The
pressure gradient between the front and high pressure over the
southeastern U.S. will produce moderate to fresh N-NE winds N of
29N and W of 76W into this evening before diminishing. Low
pressure will move WNW through the far NE waters into tonight,
bringing some fresh to locally strong winds. A broad inverted
trough will move W to along 64W early Mon, then shift W and
reorganize along 72W Tue through Thu.

$$
Flynn
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