[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231057
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Oct 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0940 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W, from 18N southward,
moving W at 10 knots. Widely scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from 06.5N to 15.5N between 18N southward between
44W and 49W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 59W, from 24N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 knots. This wave continues to interact with a
vigorous middle to upper level trough to its north, which is
amplifying the wave northward of 20N. Isolated clusters of
moderate convection are noted from 18.5N to 22.5N between 50W and
59W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W, from 18N southward,
moving W at 10 knots. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the
Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from 10N northward between
45W and 70W and is producing generally stable upper level
conditions across the central and eastern Caribbean. Widely
scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N to coastal
portions of Venezuela and Colombia between 68W and 73W. Clusters
of moderate to strong convection are occurring across interior
Venezuela N of 09.5N between 68.5W and Lake Maracaibo in NW
Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 08N27W 07.5N38W. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is from 02N to 09N between 08W and 30W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13.5N
between 34W and 43W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends from the South Carolona across the
Florida Panhandle and southwestward to the Bay of Campeche. Broad
moderate to fresh anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of
Mexico, with strongest winds occurring in southerly return flow
across the upper Mexico and Texas coastal waters. The sea heights
range from 4 to 6 feet across NW portions to 2 to 3 ft north
central portions. Low clouds are seen in satellite imagery across
the basin, with no significant convection noted.

High pressure extending NE to SW across the basin will gradually
shift NE through early next week. Fresh SE winds in the far NW
Gulf will increase to strong today and expand to the waters W of
93W tonight, ahead of a cold front. The front will move off the
Texas coast early Tue morning, and reach from the mouth of the
Mississippi River to the western Bay of Campeche Tue evening. The
front will then slow down and weaken, then gradually dissipate
over the SE basin through the middle of next week. In the wake of
the cold front, strong N winds are anticipated in the far W Gulf
Tue through Tue night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front continues across the NW Caribbean from eastern
Cuba near 20N77W passes to the NW coast of Honduras along 86W.
Widely scattered moderate isolated strong is within 240 nm to the
southeast of the stationary front, including the Windward Passage.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen about the monsoon
trough across the SW Caribbean, S of 12N between 74W and 84W.

Gentle to moderate NE to E winds prevail across NW portions of
the basin, NW of the front. Moderate trade winds prevail across
central portions, either side of a tropical wave along 70W. Seas
across the basin are 3 to 5 ft NW portions, 4 to 5 ft central
portions, and generally 3 ft or less elsewhere. A middle to upper
level trough extends from the central Atlantic southwestward
across the Caribbean east of 70W and is producing generally stable
conditions aloft.

The stationary front across the NW Caribbean will meander, with
active convection continuing N of 16N today before dissipating
late tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds and
slight to moderate seas are expected through the middle of next
week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 31N72W to the central Bahamas
near 75W and to eastern Cuba near 77W. Moderate to locally fresh N
to NE winds prevail to the west of the stationary front. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 240 nm E and
SE of the front.

A surface trough extends from 1015 mb low pressure center near
30.5N51.5W to 23N55W. A vigorous middle to upper level trough covers
the Atlantic south of 30N between 48W and 68W, and is generally
inducing a broad weak trough in the low levels. Numerous moderate
to strong convection is occurring to the NE of the trough, within
450 nm NE of a line from 20N46W to 25N62W. A broad zone of fresh
to strong winds accompanies the low center near 30.5N51.5W between
48W and 62W, where seas are 8 to 12 ft.

Elsewhere ridging prevails E of 50W, with fresh trade winds
prevailing across the tropical Atlantic. Seas are 6 to 9 ft there
in NE swell.

A weak surface trough along 75W from the central Bahamas to 31N
will drift N and out of the area late today. The stationary front
from 31N73W to central Cuba along 76W will weaken to a trough
late today, then dissipate early next week. The pressure gradient
between the trough and high pressure over the southeastern U.S.
will produce fresh N-NE winds W of the trough and N of 28N through
this evening before diminishing. Low pressure will move WNW
through the far NE waters this afternoon and tonight, bringing
fresh to locally strong winds. A broad inverted trough will move
W to along 64W early Mon, then shift W and reorganize along 72W
Tue through Thu.

$$
Stripling
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