[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230547
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Oct 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W/47W, from 18N
southward. The wave is moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 18N
southward between 36W and 50W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W/59W, from 23N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 60
nm on either side of the northernmost 240 nm of the tropical
wave, and within 360 nm to the east of the tropical wave from
10N to 14N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W, from the Dominican
Republic southward, moving westward 10 knots. Upper level
cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean
Sea from 10N northward between 45W and 70W. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong covers the northern half of Lake
Maracaibo in NW Venezuela. Isolated moderate to locally strong
covers the remainder of the area of the upper level cyclonic
wind flow.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, 10N20W 08N30W 07N38W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 11N
southward from 36W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends from the Florida Panhandle/the
Florida Big Bend, southwestward, to the coastal plains of Mexico
near 19N97W. Broad moderate to fresh anticyclonic wind flow
spans the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5
feet in the SE corner of the area, and they range from 1 foot to
3 feet in the rest of the Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure extends from the SE U.S. to the SW Gulf of Mexico,
and gradually will shift NE through early next week. Fresh SE
winds in the far NW Gulf will increase to strong on Sun, and
expand southward to 23N Sun night through Mon, ahead of a cold
front. The front will move off the Texas coast early Tue morning
and reach from Alabama to the Bay of Campeche Tue night. The
front will then slow down, stall, then gradually dissipate over
the SE basin through the middle of next week. In the wake of the
cold front, strong N winds are anticipated in the far W Gulf Tue
through Tue night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front passes through 31N74W, to 28N74W, to the
Bahamas near 24N76W, beyond Cuba near 22N78W, to the NW coast of
Honduras. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is within 360 nm to the southeast of the stationary
front, especially in Hispaniola.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W, from the Dominican
Republic southward, moving westward 10 knots. Upper level
cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean
Sea from 10N northward between 45W and 70W. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong covers the northern half of Lake
Maracaibo in NW Venezuela. Isolated moderate to locally strong
covers the remainder of the area of the upper level cyclonic
wind flow.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N from Colombia along 74W,
westward, beyond Panama and Costa Rica, and into the tropical NE
Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is from 15N southward from 73W westward, in the SW corner
of the Caribbean Sea.

Moderate NE winds span the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range
from 2 feet to 4 feet.

A stationary front persists from central Cuba near 78W to the N
coast of Honduras along 86W. This front will meander, with
active convection continuing N of 16N before dissipating late
Sun. Fresh N to NE winds will prevail behind the front over the
NW Caribbean tonight before diminishing. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas are expected
through the middle of next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 31N74W, to 28N74W, to the
Bahamas near 24N76W, beyond Cuba near 22N78W, to the NW coast of
Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds are within 210 nm to the east
of the stationary front in the Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 360 nm to
the southeast of the stationary front, especially in Hispaniola.

A surface trough passes through 31N48W, to a 1015 mb low
pressure center that is near 29N49W, to 23N55W. Upper level
cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean
Sea from 10N northward between 45W and 70W. Strong winds are
within 330 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Fresh to strong
winds are from 25N northward between 50W and 60W. Precipitation:
numerous strong is from 19N to 25N between 48W and 50W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 18N northward
between 44W and 70W. The environmental conditions appear to be
only marginally conducive for development during the next few
days. It is possible that the disturbance still may acquire some
subtropical or tropical characteristics by early next week. Its
movement is forecast to be generally west-northwestward 15 to 20
mph in the subtropical Atlantic Ocean. More development appears
to be unlikely, as the system turns northward in the cooler
waters of the northwestern Atlantic Ocean, and it encounters
stronger upper level winds, by the middle part of the next week.
Please, refer to the following webpage for more details:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet from 10N northward
from 50W eastward. Some sea heights are ranging from 4 feet to 6
feet, elsewhere in the same area. The sea heights range from 7
feet to 8 feet from the monsoon trough southward between 20W and
30W. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 6 feet in the
remainder of the area that is from 50W eastward. The sea heights
range from 5 feet to 6 feet from 23N northward between 50W and
64W. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

A surface trough along 75W from the central Bahamas to 31N will
drift N and out of the area Sun. A stationary front from 31N73W
to central Cuba along 76W will weaken to a trough Sun, then
dissipate early next week. The pressure gradient between the
trough and high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will produce
fresh to strong N-NE winds W of the trough and N of 28N through
Sun evening before diminishing. Low pressure will move WNW
through the NE waters Sun and Sun night, bringing some fresh to
locally strong winds. A broad inverted trough will move W to
along 62W early Mon, then shift W and reorganize along 72W Tue
night through Thu.

$$
mt
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