[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222223
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Oct 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2215 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 44W, from
05N to 18N, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection
is noted with this wave at this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 56W, from
05N to 23N, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 19N to 26N, between 48W and 61W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 68W,
from Venezuela to the Mona Passage, moving west at 5 to 10 kt.
No significant convection is occurring with this wave at this
time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
11N16W to 09N19W. The ITCZ continues from 09N19W to 10N38W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 13N, between
11W and 39W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A high pressure ridge extends across the basin from the SE US to
southern Mexico. Anticyclonic flow prevails, with moderate NE
winds across the eastern Gulf and moderate SE winds across the
western Gulf. Seas are 2-4 ft across the majority of the basin.

For the forecast, fresh SE winds will increase to strong in the
far NW Gulf Sun, ahead of a cold front that will move off the
Texas coast early Tue morning. This front will spread SE and reach
from Alabama to the Bay of Campeche Tue night. For the middle of
next week, the front will slow, stall, then gradually dissipate
over the SE basin. In the wake of the cold front, strong N winds
are anticipated in the far W Gulf Tue and Tue night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front persists across the western Caribbean
extending from central Cuba to western Honduras. Scattered
moderate convection is observed within 200 nm ahead of the front.
Moderate to fresh NE wind prevails NW of the front with 4-6 ft
seas. Elsewhere, moderate easterly winds and 2-4 ft seas dominate
the basin.

For the forecast, the stationary front will meander and gradually
dissipate by Sun. Fresh N to NE winds will prevail behind the
front over the NW Caribbean into tonight before diminishing.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds and slight to moderate
seas are expected through the middle of next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western Atlantic a stationary front extends from 31N73W to
23N78W. East of the front, scattered moderate convection is
observed from 20N to 31N, between 69W and 76W. Ahead of the
front, winds are moderate to fresh from the NNE with 3-5 ft seas.
Behind the front, winds are gentle from the S with 2-4 ft seas.
The winds increase to fresh easterlies E of 60W and north of 25N,
where seas are 8-11 ft.

In the central Atlantic, a 1014 mb low pressure is analyzed near
29N47W. A recent scatterometer pass depicted fresh to strong E-NE
winds north of the low. Seas are likely 10-13 ft in this area.
This system has a low probability of tropical cyclone formation
over the next 5 days. Moderate NE winds and 5-7 ft seas dominate
the eastern Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, weak low pressure centered N of the
Bahamas will drift N and out of the area Sun. The trailing
stationary front will weaken into a trough Sun, then dissipate
early next week. The pressure gradient between the low and high
pressure over the southeastern U.S. will allow for northeast winds
over the waters north of the Bahamas to strengthen to fresh to
strong speeds through Sun before diminishing. Low pressure will
move WNW through the NE waters Sun, bringing some fresh to
locally strong winds.

$$
ERA
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