[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Oct 22 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 43W, from 05N to
18N, moving west at 5 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
observed near the southern portion of the wave from 05N to 07N,
between 39W to 44W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 55W, from 05N to
23N, moving west at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 20N to 26N, between 45W and 57W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends along 68W, from Venezuela to
the Mona Passage. While the upper air sounding from San Juan, PR
indicated the arrival of mid-level moisture assoicated with the
wave, no significant convection is occuring at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 10N19W. The ITCZ continues from 10N19W to 12N38W.
Scattered modearte convection is observed from 02N to 14N, between
12W and 40W.

A portion of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends through
the SW Caribbean, triggering scattered moderate convection from
09N to 12N, between 75W and 82W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A high pressure ridge extends across the basin from the SE US to
southern Mexico. Anticyclonic flow prevails, with moderate NE
winds across the eastern Gulf and moderate SE winds across the
western Gulf. Seas are 2-4 ft across the majority of the basin.

For the forecast, with high pressure centered NE of the basin,
fresh S winds will develop across the W Gulf today, with strong
winds expected off the Texas coast tonight through Mon night. A
cold front will move into the NW Gulf early Tue morning and reach
from Mississippi to the western Bay of Campeche Tue night,
followed by fresh to strong northerly winds. The front will
dissipate by early Thu as it shifts slowly SE across the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front persits from central Cuba to western Honduras.
Scattered weak convection is observed from 15N to 20N, between 76W
and 85W. Moderate to fresh NE wind prevails NW of the front with
4-6 ft seas. Otherwise moderate easterly winds and 2-4 ft seas
dominate the basin.

For the forecast, a stationary front extends from central Cuba to
the N coast of Honduras along 87W. This front will meander and
gradually dissipate Sun. Fresh N to NE winds will prevail behind
the front over the NW Caribbean today before diminishing.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds and slight to moderate
seas are expected into the middle of next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western Atlantic a warm front extends from 31N73W to a
1013 mb low pressure centered just east of the NW Bahamas. A
stationary boudary extends from the low pressure to central Cuba.
East of these boundaries, scattered moderate convection is
observed from 21N to 31N, between 69W and 75W. Ahead of the warm
front, winds are moderate to fresh from the NNE with 3-5 ft seas.
Behind the warm front, winds are gentle from the S with 2-4 ft
seas. East of 65W, winds shift to moderate easterlies as seas
build to 5-7 ft. The winds increase to fresh easterlies E of 60W
and north of 25N, where seas are 8-10 ft

In the central Atlantic, a 1013 mb low pressure is analyzed near
28N46W. A recent scatterometer pass found fresh to storng E-NE
winds north of the low. Seas are likely 10-13 ft in this area.
This system has a low probability of tropical cyclone formation
over the next 5 days. Moderate NE winds and 5-7 ft seas dominate
the eastern Atlantic

For the forecast west of 55W, weak low pressure has developed
over the NW Bahamas. This low has formed along a nearly stationary
front that extends from 31N72W to central Cuba. The low will
drift NNE along the boundary, moving N of the area by Sun night.
The front will then dissipate by the start of next week. The
pressure gradient between the low and high pressure over the
southeastern U.S. will allow for northeast winds over the waters
north of the Bahamas to strengthen to fresh to strong speeds
through Sun before diminishing.

$$
Flynn
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