[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221058
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Oct 22 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W, from 19N southward,
moving W at 10 knots. Widespread convection prevails about the
monsoon trof between this wave and Africa. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 05.5N to 15.5N between
35W and 42W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W, from 23N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 knots. This wave is interacting with a deep
layered upper trough between 40W and 65W, which is amplifying the
wave axis toward the NNE. Satellite imagery suggests a 1010 mb surface
low is along the wave near 19.5N 54W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted from 19N to 25N between 46W and 56W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W, from 17N southward,
moving W 10 knots. The deep layered upper trough to the NE of this
wave is producing stable atmospheric conditions near the wave and
limiting convection. No significant convection is currently
occurring near this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Guinea and Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 07N30W to 08N40W.
Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection
prevails from 03N to 11N between the coast of Africa and 35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends from the mid Atlantic states SW
across the Florida Panhandle to the coastal plains of Mexico near
19N96W. Relatively dry and stable conditions prevail across the
basin this morning and are yielding fair weather. Anticyclonic
flow dominates the basin, with moderate NE winds across SE
portions and moderate return flow developing across the upper
Mexican and Texas coastal waters. Seas are around 4 ft across SE
portions and the Straits of Florida, 3 to 5 ft across the Texas
coastal waters, and 3 ft or less elsewhere.

The broad high pressure ridge extending from the NE Gulf coast
will dominate this weekend as it drifts NE into the SE U.S. This
pattern will allow for fresh S winds to develop across the W Gulf
Sat, with strong winds expected NW portions Sat night through Mon
night. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf early Tue morning
and reach from SE Louisiana to the western Bay of Campeche Tue
evening, followed by fresh to strong northerly winds. The front
will dissipated by early Thu as it shifts slowly SE across the
basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front persists through the Bahamas, across central
Cuba to the NW coast of Honduras along 86W. Moderate to fresh N to
NE winds prevail W of the front, producing seas of 4 to 6 ft.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is along the N coast of
Honduras to 17N between 82W and 86W. Isolated moderate convection
extends elsewhere within 180 nm SE of the front to the Windward
Passage. Scattered moderate to strong convection is about the
monsoon trof across the SW Caribbean, S of 11.5N between 76W and
81.5W. An upper level trough previously mentioned extends from
the central Atlantic SW into the central Caribbean and is
producing stable conditions across most of the basin E of 80W.
Gentle to moderate trade winds prevail elsewhere E of 80W, where
seas are 3 to 4 ft.

The stationary front extending from central Cuba to the N coast
of Honduras will meander and gradually dissipate this weekend.
Fresh N to NE winds will continue behind the front over the NW
Caribbean today before diminishing. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate
trade winds and slight to moderate seas are expected through early
next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 31N68W, to the Bahamas near
24N76W, beyond Cuba near 22N78W, to the NW coast of Honduras. A
surface trough is about 180 nm to the northwest of the
stationary front, from Cuba northeastward. A vigorous and deep
layered upper trough is across the NW waters along 78W and is
supporting scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection to
the N of 21N between 69W and 76W. Fresh NE winds prevail within
120 nm to the NW of the surface trough, where seas are 5 to 8 ft.

A deep layered upper trof dominated the region between 40W and 68W
to the N of 16N. This is producing a series of inverted troughs
between the stationary front and 40W, and which interrupts the
ridge across the central Atlantic. A 1012 mb low pressure center
is near 28.5N44W moving W at 15 kt. Strong E to NE winds to
around 30 kt are within 360 nm of the center between 35W and 52W,
where seas are 8 to 14 ft in NE swell. Widely scattered moderate
convection is within 180 nm across the NW semicircle of the low.

Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere across the Atlantic
between 40W and Africa. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in long period NNE
swell there.

The stationary front from SW of Bermuda through central Cuba will
meander and dissipate this weekend. The surface trough located
just to its W will lift N through the weekend, with low pressure
expected to develop near 28N75W Sat evening, then move N of the
area by Sun evening. The pressure gradient between the low and
high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will allow for northeast
winds over the waters north of the Bahamas to strengthen to fresh
to strong speeds Sat through Sun before diminishing. A broad
inverted trough will generally prevail across the waters W of 65W
Mon through Wed.

$$
Stripling
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