[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210541
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Oct 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has reached 38W/39W, from 16N
southward. The wave is moving westward from 10 knots to 15
knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong in clusters
is from 12N to 16N between 37W and 42W. Some fresh to strong
winds are near 16N41W, in areas of precipitation.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W/49W, from 17N
southward, moving westward from 05 knots to 10 knots. A surface
trough is along 24N46W 18N49W. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong is from 19N to 22N between 42W and 46W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 10N to 23N between 44W and
50W. An upper level inverted trough is on top of the area of the
surface trough and the tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 60W, from 18N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Upper level cyclonic wind
flow covers the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean from
northern sections of Venezuela to 28N between 53W and 70W. An
upper level trough has been in the same area during the last few
days. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong is in
the areas of the upper level cyclonic wind flow.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
near 15N17W, to 08N22W 09N34W 09N47W. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to widely scattered strong is from 03N to 10N between
24W and 38W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the
remainder of the area that is from 14N southward from 60W
eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends from the Florida Panhandle into
the SW corner of the area. A 1019 mb high pressure center is
near 28N90W. The cloudiness has been clearing out, after the
cold front moved through the entire Gulf of Mexico a few days
ago. Fresh winds are in the coastal waters of western Florida,
and in the coastal waters of the northern half of the Texas
coast. Moderate wind speeds or slower are in the remainder of
the area. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the SW
corner. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet in the
remainder of the Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure just offshore of the SE Louisiana coast dominates
the Gulf region tonight, and will shift NE allowing for fresh
southerly flow to set up over the western Gulf beginning Sat
night. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf late Mon night
followed by fresh to strong north winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front passes through Cuba near 22N78W, to 16N88W in
the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Sea heights that range from
6 feet to 7 feet are moving through the Yucatan Channel into the
NW part of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh northerly winds are in the
Caribbean Sea from the stationary front northwestward.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 60W, from 18N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Upper level cyclonic wind
flow covers the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean from
northern sections of Venezuela to 28N between 53W and 70W. An
upper level trough has been in the same area during the last few
days. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong is in
the areas of the upper level cyclonic wind flow.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N from Colombia along 75W,
westward, beyond Costa Rica, and into the tropical NE Pacific
Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 13N southward from 73W westward, in the SW corner of the
Caribbean Sea.

The sea heights range from 3 feet to 4 feet in the SE half of
the area. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet in much of
the NW half of the Caribbean Sea. The exception is the sea
heights that range from 6 feet to 7 feet that are moving through
the Yucatan Channel into the NW part of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh
northerly winds are in the Caribbean Sea from the stationary
front northwestward.

A stationary front extends from central Cuba to the N coast of
Honduras along 88W. The front will drift SE  over the next
couple of days as developing low pressure located across the NW
Bahamas moves NE. Fresh to strong N winds prevail behind the
front over the far NW Caribbean, including the Yucatan Channel.
These marine conditions will begin to improve Fri. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas are
expected during the next several days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 31N70W, to a 1012 mb low
pressure center that is near 26N75W, beyond Cuba near 22N78W. A
surface trough extends from the 1012 mb low pressure center,
across South Florida, to 26N82W along the SW Florida coast. The
sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet, and the wind speeds
range from fresh to strong, in the areas that are from the
surface trough northward from the stationary front
northwestward. The sea heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet, and
the wind speeds range from moderate to fresh, in the areas that
are from the surface trough southward from the stationary front
westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
generally within 300 nm to the southeast of the stationary
front, and within 180 nm of the 1012 mb low pressure center in
the N quadrant. Rainshowers are possible, in the remainder of
the area that is within 300 nm to the northwest of the cold
front. Some fresh to strong SE winds are near 27N69W, in areas
of precipitation.

A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 27N32W. Gentle to
moderate surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 23N northward
from 40W eastward. Moderate to fresh winds are from 16N to 23N
from 35W eastward, and from 09N northward between 45W and 60W.

The sea heights range from 7 feet to 10 feet from 18N northward
from 45W eastward. Some sea heights are reaching 14 feet from
28N northward from 20W eastward, near the Canary Islands. The
sea heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet elsewhere from 45W
eastward. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet between
45W and 70W.

A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 31N38W. A surface trough
extends from the low pressure center to 27N51W. The sea heights
that are near the low pressure center are ranging from 11 feet
to 13 feet within 300 nm of the low pressure center in the W
semicircle. Strong to near gale-force winds are from 30N
northward between 38W and 47W. Precipitation: scattered moderate
to widely scattered strong is within 135 nm to the south of the
low pressure center and the surface trough, between 34W and 43W.

A stationary front extends from near Bermuda to central Cuba.
Low pressure is developing along the front near the NW Bahamas.
The low will lift just N of the area during the upcoming
weekend. The pressure gradient between the low and high pressure
over the southeastern U.S. will allow for northeast winds over
the waters north and northwest of the Bahamas to gradually
strengthen to moderate to fresh speeds beginning Fri night.

$$
mt
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