[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211053
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Oct 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W, from 18N southward.
The wave is moving west at 10 knots. Scattered moderate to strong
clusters of convection are from 07N to 16.5N between 35W and 42W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W, from 21N southward,
moving west at 10 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from 20.5N to 23N between 46W and 50W. A deep
layered trough to the north of this wave along 30N has induced a
surface trough from 20N 48W to 1012 mb low pressure near 30.5N
38.5W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 61W, from 18N southward,
moving west at 10 knots. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers
the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean from northern sections of
Venezuela to 28N between 53W and 70W. This upper pattern is
limiting convection near the wave axis. Scattered moderate
convection is located well east of the wave axis from 10N to 26N
between 53W and 58W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits western Africa near 12.5N16.5W to
08.5N27W to 10N40W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 03N to 08N between 08W and 23W. Scattered to locally
numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 03.5N and 11N
between 23W and 35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends from the Florida Panhandle into
the SW corner of the basin. A 1021 mb high pressure center is
within the ridge near 27.5N90.5W. The cloud cover continues to
clear out, after the cold front moved through the entire Gulf of
Mexico a few days ago. Moderate to fresh N winds are in the
coastal waters of western Florida, from the Big Bend region to
western Cuba. Moderate SW winds prevail across the Texas coastal
waters. Anticyclonic flow prevails elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 5 ft
in N to NE swell to the south of 26N, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere.

High pressure centered offshore of the SE Louisiana coast will
shift NE through the weekend, allowing for fresh southerly flow to
set up over the western Gulf beginning Sat night, then becoming
strong NW portions Sun night through Mon night. A cold front will
move into the NW Gulf early Tue morning and reach from central
Louisiana to the Mexican coast near Tuxpan Tue evening, followed
by fresh to strong northerly winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front passes through Cuba near 22N78.5W, to coastal
Honduras near 16N87.5W. Fresh N to NE winds prevail to the
northwest of the front and are producing seas of 4 to 7 ft.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen within 150 nm SE
of the front from the Gulf of Honduras to Cuba.

A deep layered upper trough persists across the eastern Caribbean
and is producing stable atmospheric conditions east of 70W. The
tropical wave along 61W has entered this environment and is
producing only isolated showers across the SE Caribbean.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N from Colombia along 75W,
westward, beyond Costa Rica, and into the tropical NE Pacific
Ocean. Widely scattered moderate to strong convection is noted
from 09N to 11.5N between 74W and 80W. Moderate trade winds
prevail elsewhere across the basin east of 75W, where seas are 3
to 5 ft.

A stationary front extends from central Cuba to the N coast of
Honduras along 88W. The front will drift SE over the next couple
of days then dissipate. Fresh N to NE winds will prevail behind
the front over the NW Caribbean into Fri night before diminishing.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds and slight to moderate
seas are expected during the next several days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 31N72.5W to beyond Cuba near
22N78W. Elongated low pressure is located just NW of the front
and extends through a 1012 mb low center near 26N79W. Fresh NE
winds were depicted by overnight scatterometer data to the N and
nw of the low. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in this area. Anticyclonic flow
prevails east of the frontal zone to near 50W, where 4 to 5 ft
seas prevail. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted
within 120 nm SE of the front, and within 90 nm NW of the low
center.

A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 27N27W. Gentle to moderate
surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 23N northward from 40W
eastward. Moderate to fresh winds are from 16N to 23N from 35W
eastward, and from 09N northward between 45W and 60W.

The deep layered trough mentioned above has induced a 1012 mb surface
low near 30.5N38.5W. Overnight scatterometer data depicted fresh
to strong winds covering a significant area N of the low between
36W and 46W. Seas in this area are estimated at 10 to 14 ft in NE
swell.

The stationary front from near 31N72W to central Cuba will meander
and gradually dissipated through Sun. 1012 mb low pressure is
behind the front near 26N79W. The low will lift N-NE and exit the
area during the upcoming weekend. The pressure gradient between
the low and high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will allow
for northeast winds over the waters north of the Bahamas to
strengthen to fresh speeds Fri night through Sun before
diminishing.

$$
Stripling
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net