[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202131
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Oct 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 35W, south of 14N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is occurring from 10N to 14N and between 35W and 40W.

An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 45W, south of 17N,
moving W at 5-10 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough
axis south of 09N.

An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 59W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are found from 08N to 12N and between 55W and 60W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal
near 14N17W to 08N22W to 07N40W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 10W and 35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails over the Gulf of Mexico. Light to gentle
winds are found over the NW Gulf, moderate winds are noted over
the SW Gulf, and gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the
6-8 ft range in the SW Gulf, 4-7 ft elsewhere south of 25N, and
1-3 ft north of 25N.

For the forecast, high pressure dominates the Gulf region. Winds
and seas will continue to diminish across the SW Gulf tonight.
The high pressure center, currently located over the NW Gulf,
will shift NE allowing for fresh southerly flow to set up over
the western Gulf beginning Sat night. A cold front may move into
the NW Gulf late Mon night followed by fresh to strong north
winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from central Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras, Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm east of
the frontal boundary. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 5-7 ft
are noted west of the front. A relatively weaker pressure
gradient prevails across the area. This is supporting mainly
gentle to moderate winds over the central and eastern Caribbean.
Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the western Caribbean
east of the front. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the central
and eastern Caribbean, and 1-3 ft elsewhere east of the front
over the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, the front will remain nearly stationary over
the next couple of days as a developing low pressure located near
the central Bahamas moves NE. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas
of 7 to 10 ft are behind the front over the far NW Caribbean,
including the Yucatan Channel. These marine conditions will
diminish by tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds
and slight to moderate seas are expected during the next several
days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N68W to the central Bahamas and
into central Cuba. Low pressure has developed along this front NE
of the northern Bahamas. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is within 120 nm of the frontal boundary. A surface
trough extends from 31N38W to 26N55W. Scattered showers are in
the vicinity of the trough. A second trough is from 29N35W to
24N42W. Scattered showers are also in the vicinity of this
trough, East of these troughs, 1020 mb high pressure is centered
near 27N31W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of these
features. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere over the
discussion waters. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range east of 40W,
reaching 8-9 ft north of 27N. Seas of 4-6 ft are elsewhere over
the discussion waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, low pressure is developing along the
front near the central Bahamas. The low will lift just N of the
area during the upcoming weekend. The pressure gradient between
the low and high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will allow
for northeast winds over the waters north and northwest of the
Bahamas to gradually strengthen to moderate to fresh speeds
beginning Fri night.

$$
AL
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