[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201748
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Oct 20 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1725 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W, south of
14N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is occurring from 02N to 14N and between 30W and 40W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 45W, south of
17N, moving W at 5-10 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough
axis.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 58W,
south of 18N, moving westward at 10 kt. A few showers and isolated
thunderstorms are found from 12N to 18N and between 53W and 60W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal
near 14N17W to 09N28W and to 08N40W. Scattered to numerous showers
and isolated thunderstorms are present from 03N to 09N and E of
30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An expansive ridge, extending from the eastern United States to
NE Mexico, continues to dominate the Gulf of Mexico, pushing a dry
and stable airmass across the region. A layer of stratocumulus
clouds covering most of the Gulf maintains fairly tranquil
weather conditions. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of
5-9 ft prevail S of 25N, while light to gentle northerly winds and
seas of 1-4 ft are prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure is settling in over the area in the
wake of the recent strong cold front. Winds and seas will
continue to diminish across the SW Gulf today. The high pressure
will shift eastward across the northern Gulf through Sat night
allowing for fresh southerly flow to set up over the western Gulf
beginning Fri night. A cold front may move into the NW Gulf late
Mon night followed by fresh to strong north winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from central Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras, supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
within 100 nm to the east of the frontal trough. A few showers and
isolated thunderstorms are also noted within 60 nm of the coast of
Panama in the SW Caribbean. The rest of the basin is dominated by
a weak high pressure regime that supports a dry airmass and
generally tranquil weather conditions.

Moderate to fresh NE winds are occurring behind the stationary
front in the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras, along with seas of
4-7 ft. The other area of interest is in the central and central
Caribbean where the pressure gradient sustains moderate to locally
fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 3-6 ft. The strongest
winds and highest seas are found off NW Colombia. Elsewhere, light
to gentle winds and seas of 1-3 ft prevail.

For the forecast, a stationary front extends from central Cuba to the
Gulf of Honduras. The front will remain stationary over the next
couple of days as a low pressure develops along the frontal
boundary northeast of the NW Bahamas. Moderate to locally fresh
northerly winds with moderate seas follow the front. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas are
expected during the next several days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N68W to the central Bahamas and
into central Cuba. An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms
are noted N of 24N and between 66W and 76W. Fresh to occasionally
strong NE winds are observed behind the frontal boundary, along
with seas of 3-6 ft. A recent scatterometer satellite pass also
indicate that fresh to strong southerly winds are present ahead of
the frontal boundary, mainly N of 24N. This is likely associated
with the strong convection in the area. Gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds and seas of 3-5 ft are prevalent in the
remainder of the western Atlantic, W of 55W.

In the north-central Atlantic, a surface trough extends from a
1012 mb low pressure near 34N39W to 27N56W, and a few showers are
seen near the trough axis. Stronger convection is present south of
the low pressure and just north of 31N, likely to continue
spreading southward over the next few hours. Farther south, a
surface trough extends from 24N45W to 17N48W and a few showers are
noted near the trough axis. The rest of the central and eastern
Atlantic are under the influence of a 1020 mb high pressure
system near 26N30W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and
lower pressure over western Africa result in fresh to strong NE-E
winds from 18N to 24N and E of 33W. Seas in these waters are 6-8
ft. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, a stationary front extends from near Bermuda to
central Cuba. Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds follow
the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along and east
of the front. A low pressure is forecast to develop along the
frontal boundary NE of the NW Bahamas later today. The low will
lift just N of the area Fri through Sat night. The pressure
gradient between the low and high pressure over the southeastern
U.S. will allow for northeast winds over the waters north and
northwest of the Bahamas to gradually strengthen to moderate to
fresh speeds during the weekend.

$$
DELGADO
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