[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Oct 20 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front has shifted
SE of the Gulf of Mexico. Strong high pressure in its wake has
become established over eastern Mexico and is supporting a tight
pressure gradient across the SW Gulf. This pressure gradient is
supporting strong to gale force NW-N winds are occurring over a
portion of the southwest Gulf, primarily offshore Veracruz. Wave
heights generated by these winds are in the range of 12-17 ft.
The pressure gradient will begin to relax tonight into early Thu
allowing for winds to diminish below gale force. Seas will
subside below 8 ft by late Thu. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 32W, south
of 14N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 02N to 11N between 28W and 36W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 44W, south of
21N, moving slowly W near 5 kt. An area of low pressure of 1014
mb is seen near 19N44W. limited shower activity is in the
vicinity of this wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 56W, south
of 17N, moving W at 5-10 kt. Isolated showers are noted in the
vicinity of the wave from 11N to 15N.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis near 84W,
south of 17N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is over the SW Caribbean south of 12N
and west of 81W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W to 05N37W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 01N to 07N east of 27W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details about
an ongoing SW Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning.

A strong cold front has shifted SE of the Gulf of Mexico. Aside
from the area of gale force winds in the SW Gulf, strong to near
gale force winds are elsewhere south of 24N and west of 90W.
Moderate to fresh northerly winds are elsewhere across the Gulf.
Seas in the area of strong to near gale force winds are in the
7-10 ft range, with seas of 4-7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure is taking control of the weather
pattern across the Gulf region as the strong cold front moves SE
of the area. Winds will diminish below gale force in the SW Gulf
by tonight, and seas will gradually subside. The high pressure
will shift eastward across the northern Gulf through Sat night
allowing for fresh southerly flow to set up over the western Gulf
starting Sat night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from western Cuba to the Yucatan peninsula.
A weak pressure gradient prevails across the Caribbean waters,
supporting gentle to moderate winds over the central and eastern
Caribbean with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the
2-4 ft range over the central and eastern Caribbean, and 1-3 ft
elsewhere. Seas in the 6-8 ft range have reached the Yucatan
channel in northerly swell generated from the cold front.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from central Cuba to
the Gulf of Honduras on Thu, then become stationary on Fri as
low pressure develops along the frontal boundary northeast of the
NW Bahamas. Moderate to fresh northerly winds with moderate seas
will follow the front. The front will remain stationary on Sat
while gradually weakening. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade
winds and slight to moderate seas are expected during the next
several days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A robust cold front extends from 31N71W to the NW Bahamas and
eastern Cuba. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is occurring in the vicinity of the front. Moderate to locally
fresh northerly winds are observed behind the cold front, along
with seas of 4-6 ft. Fresh to locally strong winds are east of
the front north of 28N. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are
elsewhere ahead of the front to 65W and N of 25N. Seas in this
area are in the 4-7 ft range. The remainder of the western
Atlantic W of 55W, is under control of a 1019 mb high pressure
system centered near 30N58W, supporting light to gentle winds
and seas of 3-5 ft. A weak surface trough extends from 31N49W to
25N56W. Isolated showers are noted near the trough axis.

A 1022 mb high pressure system positioned near 27N34W dominates
the central and eastern tropical Atlantic. The pressure gradient
between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures over NW
Africa support fresh to strong NE-E winds from 16N to 27N and E
of 30W. Seas in these waters are 4-8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds
and seas of 2-5 ft are prevail over the remainder of the
discussion waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong south to southwest
winds ahead of the front will diminish this evening. Moderate to
fresh north to northeast winds will follow the front. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms precede the front. On Thu, low pressure
is forecast to develop along the frontal boundary NE of the NW
Bahamas. The low will lift just N of the area Fri and Sat. The
pressure gradient between the low and high pressure over the
southeastern U.S. will allow for northeast winds over the waters
north and northwest of the Bahamas to gradually strengthen to
moderate to fresh speeds during the weekend.

$$
AL
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