[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191739
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Oct 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1735 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from the NW
Bahamas to the Bay of Campeche. Strong high pressure in its wake
has become established over eastern Mexico and has caused the
pressure gradient to tighten significantly. As a result, strong to
gale force NW-N winds are occurring over a portion of the
southwest Gulf. Winds in the range of 30-40 kt are occurring S of
21N and W of 95W, primarily offshore Veracruz. Wave heights
generated by these winds are in the range of 12-17 ft. N-NE winds
of 20-25 kt are elsewhere north of the front. Wave heights with
these winds are in the range of 8-12 ft. The gradient will begin
to relax tonight into early Thu allowing for winds to diminish
below gale force. Seas will subside below 8 ft by late Thu. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center, at the website:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 31W, south of
14N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is observed from 02N to 12N and between
25W and 37W. Latest satellite-derived wind data indicate that
fresh to strong easterly winds are occurring from 09N to 13N and
between 27W and 31W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 43W, south of
21N, moving slowly W near 5 kt. An area of low pressure of 1013
mb is seen near 19N43W. An upper level trough is imparting strong
southwesterly wind shear across the disturbance, supporting
numerous moderate to isolated strong convection located to the
northeast of the wave and low pressure from 18N to 27N and between
35W and 45W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass show fresh to
near gale-force easterly winds east of the tropical wave and low
to 35W and from 15N to 23N. The strongest winds are associated
with the heaviest showers and thunderstorms. Seas of 8-12 ft are
occurring from 18N to 24N and between 37W to 45W. Latest altimeter
satellite pass indicate seas up 12 ft near 20N40W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 55W, south of
17N, moving W at 5-10 kt. The wave has been adjusted a couple of
degrees eastward based on visible satellite imagery. A few shallow
showers are present near the trough axis.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 83W,
south of 17N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Interaction between the wave
and East Pacific monsoon trough supports scattered showers to
isolated strong convection within 100 nm of the coast of western
Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal
near 14N17W to 08N27W and to 05N37W. Scattered showers are
occurring from 01N to 09N and E of 25W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details about
an ongoing SW Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning.

A strong cold front continues to push southeastward across the
Gulf of Mexico, extending from the Florida Straits to northern
Yucatan and into the Bay of Campeche. A few showers and isolated
thunderstorms are affecting the waters of the Florida Straits and
also near the coast of Mexico in the southern Bay of Campeche. The
remainder of the Gulf is under a dry continental airmass that is
suppressing the development of convection.

Outside of the Gale Warning area in the SW Gulf, moderate to fresh
northerly winds are found in the rest of the Gulf, along with seas
of 4-8 ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front extending across
the Straits of Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche will move to
just southeast of the area by late this morning. Strong gale
force winds, with seas peaking to 17 ft are present in the SW
Gulf. These conditions will diminish late tonight into early Thu.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along and south of the
front. High pressure will settle in over the area in the wake of
the front. The high pressure will shift eastward across the
northern Gulf through Sat night allowing for fresh southerly flow
to set up over the western Gulf starting Fri night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A strong cold front extends from Pinar del Rio to NE Yucatan. A
few showers dot the waters south of the frontal boundary, from
south of western Cuba to the NE Yucatan peninsula. No other
significant convection is occurring in the basin. Moderate to
locally strong northerly winds are noted behind the cold front,
along with seas of 3-6 ft. Moderate to occasionally fresh
easterly trade winds are affecting the central and eastern
Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 2-4 ft. Light to gentle winds
and seas of 1-3 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds and slight to
moderate seas are expected across most of the Caribbean during
the next several days. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean
late this morning, reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras
on Thu, then become stationary on Fri as low pressure develops
along the frontal boundary northeast of the NW Bahamas. Moderate
to fresh northerly winds with moderate seas will follow the front.
The front is forecast to weaken and dissipate over the Caribbean
waters during the upcoming weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Topical Waves section for details about wind
and wave heights associated to the wave along 43W.

A robust cold front extends from 31N72W to the NW Bahamas and the
Straits of Florida. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is occurring east of the frontal boundary to 67W and N
of 25N. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are observed behind the
cold front, along with seas of 3-6 ft. Moderate to fresh southerly
winds are occurring ahead of the front to 63W and N of 25N. Seas
in these waters are also 3-6 ft. The remainder of the western
Atlantic, W of 55W, is under a 1020 mb high pressure system
centered near 30N59W, sustaining moderate or weaker winds and
seas of 3-5 ft. A weak surface trough extends from 31N51W to
25N59W and a few showers are noted near the trough axis.

A 1024 mb high pressure system positioned near 29N31W dominates
the central and eastern tropical Atlantic. The pressure gradient
between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures over NW
Africa support fresh to strong NE-E winds from the latitude of the Cabo
Verde Islands near 15N to 27N and E of 30W. Seas in these waters
are 4-8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-5 ft are
prevalent in the remainder of the tropical Atlantic.

As for the forecast, the aforementioned strong cold front
extending from 31N72W to the Straits of Florida will reach from
near Bermuda to central Cuba by Thu morning, then become
stationary through the weekend. Fresh to strong south to southwest
winds ahead of the front will diminish this evening. Moderate to
fresh north to northeast winds will follow the front. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms precede the front. Low pressure will
form over or near the Bahamas on Fri and lift NW of the area Sat
and Sat night. The pressure gradient between the low and high
pressure over the southeastern U.S. will allow for northeast winds
over the waters north and northwest of the Bahamas to gradually
strengthen to moderate to fresh speeds during the weekend.

$$
DELGADO
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