[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191041
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Oct 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from South
Florida to the SW Gulf. Strong high pressure in its wake is
building southward over eastern Mexico. Cold air advection
is taking place over the western Gulf as the pressure gradient
there has significantly tightened. As a result, strong gale force
northwest to north winds are occurring over a portion of the
southwest Gulf, generally over the waters just southeast of
Veracruz. These winds are in the range of 30-40 kt south of about
21N and west of 95W. Wave heights generated by these winds are in
the range of 11-17 ft. North to northeast winds of 20-25 kt are
elsewhere north of the front, except for 25-30 kt winds from 20N
to 24N west of 93W. Wave heights with these winds are in the range
of 8-12 ft, except for 10-15 ft from 20N to 24N west of 93W. The
gradient will begin to relax tonight into early Thu allowing for
the gale force winds to diminish below gale force. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center, at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along reached
28W from 03N to 15N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave
is surrounded by a very moist and unstable environment. Increasing
scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is
seen from 03N to 12N between 25W-33W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 42W from 05N
to 22N, with weak low pressure of 1013 mb near 18N42W. Satellite
imagery shows an area of numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection located to the northeast of the wave and low pressure
from 18N to 25N between 34W-42W. An ASCAT pass from last night
revealed fresh to strong east to southeast winds east of the wave
and low to 35W. Nearby Altimeter data indicated wave heights of
8-9 ft.

A western Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 57W from 05N
to 18N. Its is moving westward at 5-10 kt. Isolated small showers
and thunderstorms are from 10N to 16N between the wave and 50W.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 82W south
of 17N to the eastern Pacific Ocean near 04N. It is moving westward
at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 09N13W to 08N16W, where latest ASCAT data indicates that
it transitions to the ITCZ to 07N21W and northwest to 10N27W.
It resumes west of a tropical wave near 07N30W and to 09N40W.
Aside from convection related to the tropical wave along 28W,
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from
02N to 06N between 10W-17W, and within 120 nm south of the ITCZ
between 20W-25W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm
north of the ITCZ between 16W-21W, and within 60 nm north of the
trough between 13W-16W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details about
an ongoing SW Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning

A cold front extends from South Florida to the SW Gulf. Broken
to overcast multilayer clouds, with embedded scattered showers and
thunderstorms are along and south of the front east of about 88W
to the western part of the Straits of Florida. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are south of the front and west of 88W.
Skies are clearing to the northwest of a line from 30N84W to
28N90W and to near Brownsville, Texas as cold air advection takes
place, with high pressure builds in the wake of the front. Wave
heights are 6-9 ft north of the wave outside the gale warning area
described above, except for higher wave heights of 8-11 ft from
22N to 26N west of 94W.

As for the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move to
just southeast of the area by late this morning. High pressure
will settle in over the area in the wake of the front. The high
pressure will shift eastward across the northern Gulf through Sat
night allowing for fresh southerly flow to set up over the western
Gulf starting Fri night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Water vapor imagery depicts an upper-level trough that extends
from 20N60W to the Caribbean near 18N62W. It continues to the
coast of northwest Venezuela along 70W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are over some sections of northern Colombia and
he northwest part of Venezuela.

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough is analyzed along 10N from
Colombia along 74W, westward to beyond southern Nicaragua into the
tropical Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate convection is over the
western part of Central America. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are over the southern Caribbean west of about 74W.

Wave heights are 3-4 ft south of 14N, and lower in the range of
1-2 ft over the remainder of the basin. Moderate to fresh winds
are in the eastern one-third of the area, and from 16N southward
in the central one- third of the area. Moderate wind speeds are
within 160 nm to the north of the coast of Honduras.

As for the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds and slight to
moderate seas are expected across most of the Caribbean during
the next several days. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean
this afternoon, reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on
Thu, then become stationary on Fri as low pressure develops along
the frontal boundary northeast of the NW Bahamas. Moderate to
fresh northerly winds with moderate seas will follow the front.
The front is forecast to weaken and dissipate over the Caribbean
waters during the upcoming weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Topical Waves section for details about wind
and wave heights associated to the wave along 42W.

A strong cold front extends from near 31N73W to 28N76W and to
South Florida. Increasing numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is along and east of the front to near 63W and
north of 26N. To the east, a surface trough extend from near
31N54W to 26N58W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
seen from 24N to 28N between 56W-59W, and from 20N to 24N
between 57W-63W.  Moderate wind speeds are from 25N northward
between 48W and the surface trough. An upper-level trough is
along 60W and north of 20N northward, and from 20N60W southwest
to the Caribbean Sea to 18N62W and to 11N67W.

A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 28N33W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow is present north of 23N and east of
about 46W. Moderate to fresh winds are south of 26N between
20W-30W. Comparatively lower wind speeds are in the areas of the
surface anticyclonic wind flow.

Wave heights range from 6-8 ft from 17N to 25N between 20W-45W.
Wave heights of 9 ft or higher are from 20N to 29N and east
of 20W. Lower wave heights of 3-6 ft are over the remainder of
the Atlantic.

As for the forecast, the aforementioned strong cold front
will reach from near 31N70W to west-central Cuba this evening,
from near Bermuda to central Cuba early Thu, then become
stationary through the weekend. Fresh to strong south to southwest
winds ahead of the front will diminish this evening. Moderate to
fresh north to northeast winds will follow the front. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will precede the front. Low pressure
will form over or near the Bahamas on Fri and lift NW of the area
Sat and Sat night. The pressure gradient between the low and high
pressure over the southeastern U.S. will allow for northeast winds
over the waters north and northwest of the Bahamas to gradually
strengthen to moderate to fresh speeds during the weekend.

$$
Aguirre
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