[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Oct 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...

A cold front is along 26N82W 24N88W 20N97W. Expect gale-force N
winds, and sea heights that range from 10 feet to 16 feet, from
21N to 24N W of 96W. Expect N to NE winds from 20 knots to 30
knots, elsewhere, to the N and to the W of the cold front. The
sea heights will range from 8 feet to 12 feet W of 90W, and the
sea heights will reach 8 feet from 90W eastward. Please, read
the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National
Hurricane Center, at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has reached 26W/27W,
from 14N southward. The wave is moving westward from 10 knots to
15 knots. Precipitation: any nearby precipitation also is near
the ITCZ.

A central Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W/42W, from
18N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. A 1013
mb low pressure center is along the tropical wave near 17.5N.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 16N to 23N
between 35W and 41W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center
is about 360 nm to the NNW of the 1013 mb low pressure center.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the
area that is from 20N northward between 30W and 50W.   Near gale-
force winds are within 210 nm of the low pressure center in the
NE quadrant. Fresh to strong winds are elsewhere within 380 nm
of the low pressure center in the NE quadrant. Moderate wind
speeds are in the remainder of the area that is from 13N to 25N
between 30W and 43W.

Another central Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W/56W,
from 17N southward, moving westward from 05 knots to 10 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 17N
southward between 47W and 60W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W/81W, from 17N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation is
apparent.

A tropical wave is along 98W/99W, from 21N in Mexico southward.
Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is inland in Mexico. Please, read
the following bulletin,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2, for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 09N13W, to 09N18W. The ITCZ continues from 09N18W, 11N24W
08N28W 07N36W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered
moderate, and isolated to widely scattered strong, is from 16N
southward from 40W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more information
about the gale-force wind conditions, that are in the Gulf of
Mexico.

A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 31N74W, to
Florida just to the north of Lake Okeechobee, to 25N86W in the
Gulf of Mexico, to 23N90W and 21N96W. Precipitation: broken to
overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally
strong, are nearly everywhere in the Gulf of Mexico. The
exception for clearer skies is in the coastal waters that are
within 90 nm of the coast of Florida along 87W, to 165 nm from
the coast of the border of Louisiana and Texas. Mostly strong
northerly winds are in the Gulf of Mexico from 87W westward. The
sea heights are 8 feet or higher from 27N southward from 90W
westward. The sea heights are ranging from 6 feet to 8 feet
elsewhere from the cold front northward. The sea heights are
ranging from 1 foot to 3 feet from the cold front southward,
especially from 90W eastward.

A strong fall cold front extending from Fort Myers in Florida to
23N90W and to 20N97W, will reach from the Florida Keys to the
central Bay of Campeche late tonight, and from 25N80W across the
Straits of Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche Wed morning.
Gale force winds of 30 to 40 kt and seas peaking to 17 or 18 ft
are expected in the wake of the front over the SW Gulf. The gale
force winds near the Tampico area will continue to spread
southward into the Veracruz region tonight through Wed evening.
Winds will diminish below gale force late Wed night. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be along and to the south of the
front. High pressure will settle in over the area in the wake of
the front. The high pressure will shift eastward across the
northern Gulf through Sat night allowing for fresh southerly
flow to set up over the western Gulf starting Fri
night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough is along 20N60W, into the Caribbean Sea to
18N62W, and to the coast of NW Venezuela along 70W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the
area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow that is with the
trough.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N from Colombia along 74W,
westward, beyond southern Nicaragua, and into the tropical NE
Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is in parts of Venezuela and Colombia, and in
the coastal waters, from 08N to 13N between 70W and 77W.
Numerous strong is in Guatemala, within 30 nm on either side of
16N, in broad surface low pressure.

The sea heights range from 3 feet to 4 feet from 14N southward.
The sea heights range from 1 foot to 2 feet in the remainder of
the area. Moderate to fresh winds are in the eastern one-third
of the area, and from 16N southward in the central one-third of
the area. Moderate wind speeds are within 160 nm to the north of
the coast of Honduras.

Gentle to moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas are
expected across most of the Caribbean during the next several
days. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Sea by Wed
afternoon, reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on
Thu, then become stationary on Fri as low pressure
develops along the frontal boundary northeast of the NW Bahamas.
Moderate to fresh northerly winds with moderate seas will follow
the front. The front is forecast to weaken and dissipate over the
Caribbean waters during the upcoming weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the TROPICAL WAVES section, for details about the
wind speeds that are near the 41W/42W tropical wave, and a 1013
mb low pressure center that is along the tropical wave.

A cold front passes through 31N74W to Florida just to the north
of Lake Okeechobee. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 24N
northward from 64W westward.

A surface trough passes through 31N55W, to 26N59W. Moderate wind
speeds are from 25N northward between 48W and the surface
trough. An upper level trough is along 60W from 20N northward,
and then from 20N60W, into the Caribbean Sea to 18N62W and
11N67W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is to
the north of the line that passes through 31N44W 23N52W 18N57W
15N65W 31N61W.

A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 30N33W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow is from 23N northward from 46W eastward.
Moderate to fresh winds are from 26N southward between 20W and
30W. Comparatively slower wind speeds are in the areas of the
surface anticyclonic wind flow.

The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet from 17N between 20W
and 45W. The sea heights are 9 feet or higher from 29N northward
from 20W eastward. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 6 feet
in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

A strong cold front extending from 31N74W to Fort Pierce,
Florida will reach from near 31N72W to the NW Bahamas and the
Straits of Florida by Wed morning, from near 31N70W to the
central Bahamas and to central Cuba Wed evening, from near
Bermuda to the central Bahamas and central Cuba by Thu morning
and become stationary through the weekend. Fresh to strong south
to southwest winds will precede the front north and northeast of
the Bahamas through Wed, while moderate to fresh north to
northeast winds will follow the front. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will precede the front. Low pressure will form
along the frontal boundary northeast of the NW Bahamas on Fri as
a surface trough extends from the low northwestward toward the
southeastern U.S. coast through Fri night. The surface trough
and the low pressure will lift northwest of the forecast waters
Sat and Sat night. The pressure gradient between this low and
high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will allow for
northeast winds over the waters north and northwest of the
Bahamas to gradually strengthen to moderate to fresh speeds
during the weekend.

$$
mt/ja
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net