[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Oct 20 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...

The cold front already has exited from the Gulf of Mexico.
Expect gale-force NW-to-N winds, and sea heights that range from
10 feet to 15 feet, from 21N southward from 95W westward. Expect
N to NE winds from 20 knots to 25 knots, and sea heights that
range from 8 feet to 12 feet, elsewhere, from 22N southward from
90W westward. These conditions are going to continue for the
next 15 hours or so. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast,
that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has reached 32W/33W, from 16N
southward. The wave is moving westward from 10 knots to 15
knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 14N southward between 24W and 40W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24N44W 18N44W 08N41W,
moving westward from 05 knots to 10 knots. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is from 19N to 22N between 42W and
46W. Upper-level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are
from 16N northward between 30W and 50W. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong, are from 20N northward between 20W and 50W. Moderate to
fresh winds are from 15N to 22N within 180 nm to the east of the
tropical wave, and from 20N to 24N within 225 nm to the west of
the tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W, from 17N
southward, moving westward from 05 knots to 10 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 12N to 21N between 50W and 60W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 14N southward between 45W and 60W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W, from 17N southward,
moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. This tropical wave
passes through Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica.
Precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation is
apparent.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
and Mauritania along 16N, to 16N22W. The ITCZ is along 11N/12N
between 23W and 31W; and along 08N34W 05N44W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 16N southward from
24W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more information
about the gale-force wind conditions, that are in the Gulf of
Mexico.

A surface ridge extends from south central Texas/the Deep South
of Texas, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. A
cold front moved through the Gulf of Mexico during the last 24
hours. Remnant multilayered clouds cover much of the Gulf of
Mexico. The cold front passes through Cuba near 22N79W, through
the northern part of Belize and Guatemala, to the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: isolated to
widely scattered moderate, and isolated strong, are within 320
nm to 480 nm on either side of the cold front.

Moderate to fresh northerly wind speeds cover much of the Gulf
of Mexico, away from the SW corner, where the gale-force winds
remain. The sea heights range from 9 feet to 12 feet in the SW
corner, with maximum values reaching 14 feet. The sea heights
range from 7 feet to 9 feet from 23N to 25N between 85W and 89W.
The sea heights are generally 6 feet or higher, elsewhere, in
the southern half of the area. The sea heights range from 3 feet
to 5 feet in the northern half of the Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure is settling into the area, in the wake of the
recent strong cold front. Gale force winds in the far southwest
Gulf near Veracruz will diminish late tonight. Seas in the
southwest Gulf will gradually subside from late tonight through
Thu. The high pressure will shift eastward across the northern
Gulf through Sat night allowing for fresh southerly flow to set
up over the western Gulf beginning Sat. Winds are expected to
diminish slightly Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through Cuba near 22N79W, through the
northern part of Belize and Guatemala, to the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: isolated to
widely scattered moderate, and isolated strong, are within 320
nm to 480 nm on either side of the cold front.

An upper level trough passes through 30N52W, to the NE corner of
the Caribbean Sea, to NW coastal Venezuela. Upper level cyclonic
wind flow, and isolated moderate to locally strong convective
precipitation, are within 300 nm on either side of the trough.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/11N from Colombia along 74W,
westward, beyond Panama and Costa Rica, and into the tropical NE
Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is from 13N southward from 73W westward, in the SW corner
of the Caribbean Sea.

The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in parts of the SE
corner, and in the south central sections, of the Caribbean Sea.
The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet in the remainder of
the area. Moderate to fresh winds are from 76W eastward. Gentle
wind speeds or slower are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

A cold front extends from central Cuba to inland northern
Belize. The front will reach from east-central Cuba to the Gulf
of Honduras on Thu, then become stationary on Fri as low
pressure develops along the frontal boundary northeast of the NW
Bahamas. Moderate to fresh northerly winds with moderate seas
will follow the front. The front will remain stationary on Sat
while gradually weakening. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade
winds and slight to moderate seas are expected during the next
several days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N70W, to the Bahamas near 24N77W,
beyond Cuba near 22N79W.  Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is generally within 240 nm on either side of the
cold front. Widely scattered moderate to strong is from 27N to
30N between 62W and 64W.

A surface trough passes through 31N49W, to 29N53W, and 25N57W.
An upper level trough passes through 30N52W, to the NE corner of
the Caribbean Sea, to NW coastal Venezuela. Upper level cyclonic
wind flow, and isolated moderate to locally strong convective
precipitation, are within 300 nm on either side of the trough.

A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 28N34W. Gentle to
moderate surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward
from 40W eastward. Moderate to fresh winds are from 17N to 25N
from 25W eastward, and from 06N to 24N between 25W and 40W.
Moderate winds are from 14N to 21N between 50W and 60W. Gentle
wind speeds or slower are in the remainder of the Atlantic
Ocean.

The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet from 14N northward
from 40W eastward. Some sea heights that range from 4 feet to 6
feet are mixed into the same area. The sea heights range from 4
feet to 6 feet between 40W and 60W. The sea heights range from 3
feet to 5 feet in the remainder of the area that is from 60W
westward.

A strong cold front extends from 31N71W to the central Bahamas
and to central Cuba. Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds
will follow the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
along and east of the front. Low pressure is forecast to develop
Thu along the frontal boundary NE of the NW Bahamas. The low
will lift just N of the area Fri through Sat night. The pressure
gradient between the low and high pressure over the southeastern
U.S. will allow for northeast winds over the waters north and
northwest of the Bahamas to gradually strengthen to moderate to
fresh speeds during the weekend.

$$
mt/ja
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