[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181752
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Oct 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front across the
central Gulf will continue to surge southeastward reaching the
Yucatan Channel and Bay of Campeche by Wed afternoon. Fresh to
strong northerly winds behind the front are expected to increase
and reach near-gale to gale force in the far west-central Gulf by
early this afternoon. These winds will continue to surge southward
following the front into the western Bay of Campeche by later
tonight. Rough seas of 8 to 10 ft will build to between 10 and 14
ft this evening, and then further to 13 and 17 ft by Wed morning.
Starting late Wed afternoon, both winds and seas should gradually
decrease from the west-central Gulf southward through early Thu
morning. Improved conditions are anticipated for the west-central
Gulf by Thu morning, and Bay of Campeche by Thu night. Please read
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 24W from the southern
Cabo Verde Island southward, and moving west around 15 kt.
Abundant moisture is fueling scattered moderate convection from
04N to 11N between 21W and 31W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 38W from a 1012 mb low at
16N southward and moving west around 15 kt. Abundant moisture with
divergent winds aloft are triggering scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection from 09N to 20N between 31W and 38W.
Latest satellite altimetry and model output indicate fresh to
locally strong easterly winds with 7 to 9 ft seas from 10N to 18N
between 34W and 38W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 55W from 17N southward,
and moving slowly west around 5 kt. No significant convection is
noted with this wave.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 79W from 16N southward across
central Panama into the Pacific, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt.
Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen over
Panama and northwest Colombia, and nearby Caribbean waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Senegal coast just
south of Dakar across 10N22W to 05N30W. Scattered moderate
convection is flaring up south of the trough near the African
coast from Gambia southward to the Ivory Coast. No ITCZ is present
based on the latest analysis.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details on an ongoing
Gale Warning for the west-central and southwestern Gulf.

A strong fall cold front extends west-southwestward from near
Tampa, Florida through the central Gulf to just north of Tampico,
Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring
along and up to 130 nm south of the front, including the southwest
coast of Florida and Florida Keys. The northern part of an
eastern Pacific tropical wave is over the western Bay of Campeche
near Vera Cruz, Mexico. Together with a surface trough at the
eastern Bay of Campeche, they are triggering numerous heavy
showers and scattered thunderstorms across the southwestern Gulf.

Behind the cold front, fresh to strong northerly winds and seas
of 6 to 9 ft are present at the northwestern Gulf; while mostly
fresh northerly winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are found across the
north-central and northeastern Gulf. Near the front at the far
west-central Gulf, strong to locally near-gale northerly winds
and seas at 8 to 10 ft are evident. Gentle to moderate NW to N
winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf,
including the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the strong cold front will reach from the
Florida Keys to the central Bay of Campeche tonight, and from
25N80W across the Straits of Florida to the central Bay of
Campeche by Wed morning. Gale force winds and seas peaking near
17 ft are expected in the wake of the front over the western Gulf.
These gale force winds will surge southward offshore the Tampico
area this afternoon, spreading into the Veracruz region tonight
through Wed evening. Winds will diminish below gale force by Wed
night. High pressure will settle over the area in the wake of the
front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will precede the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section for convection in the
Caribbean Sea. Moderate easterly trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft are
seen at the south-central basin offshore from near the Colombia-
Venezuela border. A neutral zone between the cold front at the
Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic ridge near the Bahamas is
supporting light to gentle winds with 1 to 2 ft seas for the
northwestern basin. Gentle NE to E trades and seas at 2 to 4 ft
prevail for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds and slight to
moderate seas are expected across most of the Caribbean during the
next several days. A cold front is forecast to reach from western
Cuba across the Yucatan Channel to the northern Yucatan Peninsula
by Thu morning, followed by moderate to fresh northerly winds
and moderate seas. The front will then extend from central Cuba
to the Gulf of Honduras by Thu afternoon, then stall while
gradually weakening Fri through Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A strong cold front curves southwestward from off the Carolina
coast across 31N78W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are flaring up near and up to
160 nm southeast of the front. Convergent southerly winds farther
southeast are causing similar conditions over the northwest
Bahamas and well northeast of the southeast Bahamas. A surface
trough extends southwestward from the north-central Atlantic
across 31N54W to 26N61W. Isolated thunderstorms are found near and
east of this feature north of 25N between 49W and 61W. A broad
upper-level low near 22N46W is producing scattered moderate
convection from 21N to 27N between 34W and 46W. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional
weather in the Atlantic Basin.

A modest 1021 mb Azores High is supporting light to gentle winds
and seas at 5 to 7 ft in northerly swell north of 25N between the
northwest African coast and 45W. Farther west, gentle to moderate
with locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft are
present north of 20N between 45W and the Georgia-Florida coast. To
the south, Gentle easterly trades with 4 to 6 ft seas are seen
from 10N to 20N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles. For the
eastern tropical Atlantic outside the influence of the tropical
wave near 38W, moderate to fresh NNE to ENE trades and seas of 4
to 7 ft are exist from 10N to 25N between the central African
coast and 40W, including the Cabo Verde Islands. Light to gentle
monsoonal and southerly winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the
rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned strong cold
front will reach from near 31N73W to the NW Bahamas and the
Straits of Florida by Wed morning, and from near Bermuda to the
central Bahamas and western Cuba by Thu morning. Fresh to strong
S to SW winds will precede the front north and northeast of the
Bahamas today. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will follow the
front. Seas will build to 8 ft in the wake of the front. Expect
scattered showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong, ahead
of the front. A coastal trough is expected to develop east of
northern and central Florida starting on Fri. Low pressure may
develop from the trough late Fri and lift northwest of the area
Sat and Sat night. As a result of this feature, northerly winds
are expected to increase across the Atlantic waters off the
Georgia and Florida coast Sat and Sat night.

$$

Chan
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