[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181038
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Oct 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong fall cold front extends
from northeast Florida southwestward to 28N88W to 25N93W and to
inland northeast Mexico near 25N98W. This front will continue
to surge southeastward reaching the Yucatan Channel by Wed
afternoon. Strong northerly winds behind the front are expected to
increase to gale force in the far western Gulf by early this
afternoon. The gale force winds will continue to surge southward
as the front progresses, reaching the western Bay of Campeche by
late tonight and continuing there through late Wed night. Very
rough seas peaking to around at 17 ft are expected near the
strongest winds. Winds will decrease and seas abate through the
day Thu, with favorable marine boating conditions returning
throughout the basin by Fri. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 23W
from 03N to 16N. It is moving westward at about 15 kt. This wave
is surrounded by a very moist and unstable environment. Clusters
of increasing numerous moderate to isolated strong convection are
seen within 180 nm west of the wave from 03N to 11N. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are within 180 nm east of the wave from
04N to 12N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 36W from 03N
to 19N moving westward at 10-15 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure center
is analyzed along the wave axis near 15N36W. This wave is also
surrounded by a very moist and unstable environment. Increasing
moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 07N to 19N
between 30W-37W. An overnight ASCAT data pass highlighted fresh
to strong east to southeast winds within about 180 nm east of this
wave from 13N to 19N. An overnight altimeter data pass indicated
seas of 8-9 ft in the vicinity the wave.

A western Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 55W from 03N
to 18N. It is slowly moving westward. No significant convection
is noted with this wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 77W from 05N
to 17N. It is moving westward at around 10 kt. A 1008 mb low
pressure center is analyzed along the wave near 11N77W. This is
where the eastern Pacific monsoon trough intersects the wave.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen from 09N to 12N
between 74W-79W.

The northern part of an eastern Pacific tropical wave protrudes
into the western Bay of Campeche along 96W and north to 21N.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is increasing
over southeastern Mexico and the southern section of the Bay
of Campeche.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 13N17W to
05N27W, and continues northwest from there to 08N37W and
southwest to 06N42W, where over latest ASCAT data indicates that
it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N45W and to 04N50W. Aside from
convection related to tropical waves, scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is well south of the monsoon trough
from 04N to 08N between 10W-15W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 01N to 04N between 28W-34W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details on an ongoing
Gale Warning for some sections of the western Gulf.

A strong fall cold front extends from northeast Florida
southwestward to 28N88W to 25N93W and to inland northeast Mexico
near 25N98W. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are
observed along and south of the front in the western Gulf. Behind
the front, buoys are reporting a fresh to strong north to
northeast winds and 5-8 ft seas. An overnight ASCAT pass revealed
similar winds. Conditions are more favorable ahead of the front
with light to gentle winds and slight seas.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from near Tampa Bay,
Florida to northeast Mexico near 25N98W this morning, and from the
Florida Keys to the central Bay of Campeche by Wed morning. Gale
force winds and seas peaking to around or at 17 ft are expected in
the wake of the front over the western Gulf. The gale force winds
will surge southward offshore the Tampico area late this morning
into the afternoon hours, spreading into the Veracruz region
tonight through late Wed night. Winds will diminish below gale
force by Wed night. High pressure will settle over the area in the
wake of the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
precede the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient is supporting favorable conditions
across the basin. Gentle to moderate winds and 2-4 ft seas are
found over the south central Caribbean. Light to gentle trade
winds seas of 1-3 ft continue elsewhere.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds and slight to
moderate seas are expected across most of the Caribbean during the
next several days. A cold front is forecast to reach from western
Cuba to the Yucatan Channel and to along the northern Yucatan
Peninsula by Thu morning followed by moderate to fresh northerly
winds with moderate seas. The front will extend from central Cuba
to the Gulf of Honduras by Thu afternoon, then stall while
gradually weakening Fri through Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A strong cold front is just offshore the U.S. southeast coast.
Increasing numerous moderate convection moving eastward is present
from 25N to 31N between 72W-79W. To the east, a surface trough
extends from near 31N56W to 28n59W and to 24N63W, supporting
another area of scattered moderate convection from 23N to 31N,
between 52W and 61W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and 3-5 ft
seas are observed north of 27N and west of 70W.

In the central Atlantic, winds are gentle to moderate from the
south and east in direction along with 4-6 ft seas. Strong winds
and a small area of seas to 8 ft are noted in the vicinity of the
tropical wave along 35W. In the eastern Atlantic, a high pressure
ridge extends along 27N, with the associated gradient allowing
for light to gentle trade winds there. North of the ridge,
westerly winds gradually increase with latitude, becoming a fresh
breeze by 31N, and gale force farther north. Seas are approaching
8 ft from this system along 31N, and will continue to propagate
southward. South of the ridge, winds are moderate to fresh from
the northeast to east in direction along with 5-7 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned strong cold
front just offshore the Georgia coast will reach from near 31N77W
to Vero Beach, Florida this morning, then from near 31N72W to the
NW Bahamas and the Florida Keys by Wed morning, and from near
Bermuda to the central Bahamas and western Cuba by Thu morning.
Fresh to strong south to southwest winds will precede the front
north and northeast of the Bahamas today. Moderate to fresh north
to northeast winds will follow the front. Seas will build to 8 ft
in the wake of the front. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms,
some possibly strong, ahead of the front. A coastal trough is
expected to develop east of northern and central Florida starting
on Fri. Low pressure may develop from the trough late Fri and lift
northwest of the area Sat and Sat night. As a result of this
feature, northerly winds are expected to increase over the
northwest part of the area Sat and Sat night.

$$
Aguirre
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