[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180410
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Oct 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from the Florida
Panhandle to NE Mexico. This front will push SE through the Gulf
of Mexico, reaching the Yucatan Channel by Wednesday afternoon.
Strong northerly winds behind the front are expected to increase
to gale force in the far western Gulf by Tuesday night. Gales will
continue to push south as the front progresses, reaching the
western Bay of Campeche by Wednesday morning. Very rough seas up
to 16 or 17 ft are expected near the strongest winds. Winds will
decrease and seas abate through the day Thursday, with favorable
conditions returning throughout the basin by Friday.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 21W, from 03N to
21N, moving west at 20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
observed from 04N to 12N, between 18W and 29W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 35W, from 02N to
16N, moving west at 5 kt. A 1011 mb low pressure center is
analyzed along the wave near 14N35W. Scattered moderate convection
is observed from 06N to 20N, between 28W and 44W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave extends along 54W, from 03N to
17N, moving west at 5 kt. No significant convection is associated
with this wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends along 76W, from 09N to
16N, moving west at 5 kt. A 1008 mb low pressure center is
analyzed along the wave near 11N76W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 09N to 12N, between 73W and 81W.

A Gulf of Mexico tropical wave extends along 94W, south of 20N.
Scattered moderate convection is observed over SE Mexico and
northern Central America.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 13N17W to
06N25W to a 1011 mb low pressure center near 14N35W to 09N43W. The
ITCZ continues from 09N43W to 11N51W. In addition to the
convection discussed in the Tropical Waves section above,
scattered moderate convection is observed from 11N to 13N, between
47W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for a Gale Warning in the
west-central Gulf.

The first strong cold front of the Fall season has entered the
Gulf. It extends from the Florida Panhandle to NE Mexico, just
south of the Texas border. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are observed along and south of the front in the western Gulf.
Behind the front, buoys are reporting a fresh to strong northerly
wind and 5-7 ft seas on a building trend. Condtions are more
favorable ahead of the front with light to gentle winds and slight
seas.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from near Tampa Bay,
Florida to northeast Mexico near 25N98W by early Tue, and from the
Florida Keys to the central Bay of Campeche by Wed morning. Gale
force winds and building seas peaking to 16 or 17 ft are expected
in the wake of the front over the western Gulf. The gale force
winds will surge southward offshore the Tampico area late Tue
morning into the afternoon hours, spreading into the Veracruz
region Tue night through late Wed night. Winds will diminish below
gale force by Wed night. High pressure will settle over the area
in the wake of the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
precede the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient is supporting favorable conditions
across the basin. Gentle to moderate winds and 2-4 ft seas are
found over the south central Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and
1-3 ft seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds and slight to
moderate seas are expected across most of the Caribbean during
the next several days. A cold front is forecast to reach from
western Cuba to the Yucatan Channel and to along the northern
Yucatan Peninsula by Thu morning followed by moderate to fresh
northerly winds with moderate seas. The front will extend from
central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Thu afternoon, then
stall while gradually weakening Fri through Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As a cold front approaches the U.S. Atlantic coast, scattered
moderate convection is observed from 26N to 31N, west of 75W. A
surface trough extends from 31N56W to 24N65W, supporting another
area of scattered moderate convection from 23N to 31N, between 52W
and 61W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and 3-5 ft seas are
observed north of 27N and west of 70W.

In the central Atlantic, winds are gentle to moderate from the S
and E with 4-6 ft seas. Strong winds and a small area of seas to
8 ft are noted in the vicinty of the tropical wave along 35W. In
the eastern Atlantic, a high pressure ridge extends along 27N,
creating an area of light to gentle winds. North of the ridge,
westerly winds graually increase with latitude, becoming a fresh
breeze by 31N, and gale force farther north. Seas are approaching
8 ft from this system along 31N, and will continue to propagte
south. South of the ridge, winds are moderate to fresh from the
NE-E with 5-7 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a strong cold front will move off
the northeast Florida coast tonight, reach from near 31N77W to
Daytona Beach, Florida Tue morning, from near 31N72W to the NW
Bahamas and the Florida Keys by Wed morning, and from near Bermuda
to the central Bahamas and western Cuba by Thu morning. Fresh to
strong south to southwest winds will precede the front north and
northeast of the Bahamas tonight and Tue. Moderate to fresh north
to northeast winds will follow the front. Seas will build to 8 ft
in the wake of the front. Expect scattered showers and
thunderstorms,some possibly strong to isolated severe, ahead of
the front tonight.

$$
Flynn
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