[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182204
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Oct 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from
near Sarasota, Florida through the central Gulf to Tampico,
Mexico. Gale force winds have developed west of the front south
of 24N. Seas are peaking near 10 ft over the area of gale force
winds. As the front pushes southward, the gale force winds will spread
southward, reaching the waters off Veracruz, Mexico tonight. Seas
are expected to peak above 15 ft with the gale force winds. Winds
and seas will start to decrease Wednesday, with winds diminishing
below gale force Wednesday night. Improved conditions are
anticipated for the west-central Gulf by Thu morning, and Bay of
Campeche by Thu night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 25W from 15N
southward, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 21W and 30W.

The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 39W/40W from 20N
southward and moving west around 15 kt. Low pressure has
developed along the tropical wave near 17N39.5W. Scattered
moderate convection is found east of the wave axis from 10N to
22N between 30W and 40W.

The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 56W from 17N
southward, and moving west around 5 to 10 kt. No significant
convection is noted with this wave.

The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 80W from 16N
southward across central Panama into the Pacific, moving west at
10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over the Caribbean
waters within 60 nm of the wave axis south of 12N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough moves off the coast of Africa near 15N17W and
extends to near 06N30W. Associated convection is discussed in
the Tropical Waves section above.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning for the west-central and southwestern Gulf.

A strong fall cold front extends west-southwestward from near
Sarasota, Florida through the central Gulf to Tampico, Mexico.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring along
and up to 120 nm south of the front. The northern part of an
eastern Pacific tropical wave is over the western Bay of Campeche.
These features are triggering scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection across the southwestern Gulf.

Fresh to strong northerly winds prevail behind the front,
reaching gale force south of 24N. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range
behind the front and west of 90W, reaching 10 ft over the region
of gale force winds. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range elsewhere north
of the front. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 1-3 ft
prevail ahead of the front.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from the Florida
Keys to the central Bay of Campeche tonight, and from 25N80W
across the Straits of Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche by
Wed morning. Gale force winds of 30 to 40 kt and seas peaking to
at 17 or 18 ft are expected in the wake of the front over the SW
Gulf. The gale force winds near the Tampico area will continue
to spread southward into the Veracruz region tonight through Wed
evening. Winds will diminish below gale force by Wed night. High
pressure will settle over the area in the wake of the front.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms precede the front, forecast
to move SE of the area by Wed afternoon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A relatively weak pressure gradient prevails across the Caribbean
waters. This weak gradient is supporting gentle to moderate winds
south of 13N and east of 77W, with light to gentle winds
elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range, reaching near 4 ft over
the SW Gulf where there has been a long enough fetch for slightly
higher seas.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds and slight to
moderate seas are expected across most of the Caribbean during
the next several days. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean
by Wed afternoon, reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras
on Thu, then stall on Fri as low pressure develops along the
frontal boundary NE of the NW Bahamas. Moderate to fresh
northerly winds with moderate seas will follow the front. The
front is forecast to weaken and dissipate over the Caribbean
waters during the upcoming weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N76W across central Florida into the
Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120
nm east of the front. Fresh to strong winds, and seas to 8 ft are
found within 180 nm east of the front and north of 28N. A surface
trough is analyzed from 31N55W to 26N60W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 120 nm east of the trough. Farther
east, 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 31N35W. Light winds
are in the vicinity of the high center. North of 20N, moderate
to fresh winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, are found between this area
of high pressure and an area of low pressure along a tropical
wave near 17N39.5W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north
of 20N. Northerly swell is producing seas of 8 to 10 ft north of
28N between 22W and 35W. Seas of 4-6 ft are elsewhere north of
20N.

South of 20N, a tight gradient between the aforementioned high
pressure and low pressure is supporting fresh to strong winds,
and seas of 7-9 ft, north of the low to 20N. Gentle to moderate
winds, and seas of 4-7 ft are elsewhere south of 20N.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
reach from near 31N72W to the NW Bahamas and the Straits of
Florida by Wed morning, and from near Bermuda to the central
Bahamas and central Cuba by Thu morning. Fresh to strong south to
southwest winds will precede the front north and northeast of
the Bahamas through tonight. Moderate to fresh north to northeast
winds will follow the front. Seas will build to 8 ft in the wake
of the front. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms, some
possibly strong, ahead of the front. By Fri, a low is forecast to
develop along the frontal boundary NE of the NW Bahamas. The low
will likely move N of the area Sat and Sat night. The pressure
gradient between the low and high pressure over the SE CONUS will
support moderate to fresh NE winds over the northwest part of
the area through Sun night.

$$
AL
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