[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171807
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Oct 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: An early season strong cold front
currently over the northwestern Gulf will sink southeastward
through Wed afternoon, and exit the southeastern Gulf on Wed
night. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are expected to develop
across the northwestern Gulf off the Texas coast tonight. These
winds will increase to between strong and gale force, and spread
southward into the west-central Gulf by Tue afternoon, then into
the western Bay of Campeche on Wed. Seas will build and reach 11
to 15 ft on Tue and 13 to 17 ft on Wed. The strongest winds and
highest seas are anticipated near the Mexican coast of Veracruz.
Both winds and seas should gradually subside starting Thu.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A newly analyzed far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 18W
from just west of Dakar, Senegal at 15N southward, and moving
west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N
to 11N between the Guinea-Bissau/Sierra Leone/Liberia coast and
22W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W from 16N southward,
and moving west around 5 kt. Fresh southerly winds with 6 to 8 ft
seas are present just east of the wave from 10N to 15N between
31W and 34W. Enhanced by divergent winds aloft, widespread
scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 16N between 29W
and 41W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 53W from 17N southward,
and moving west at 5 kt. No significant convection is present
based on the latest analysis.

Based on the latest sounding data from Curacao, Neverthlands
Antilles and model output, a tropical wave in the Caribbean Seas
has been relocated to near 74W from just south of Haiti southward
into northern and central Colombia. It is moving west around 10
kt. Isolated thunderstorms are seen near the Colombia-Venezuela
border.

Another tropical wave is near 92W from the eastern Bay of Campeche
southward across southeastern Mexico into the East Pacific, and moving
west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present at
the central Bay of Campeche and Mexican States of Veracruz and
Oxaca.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic at the Senegal-Gambia border
across 07N25W to 09N42W. Other than the convection related to the
tropical waves, no significant convection is found near the
trough. An ITCZ continues northwestward from 09N42W to 13N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is evident up to 160 nm north of the
ITCZ.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and thunderstorms over Panama, northwestern
Colombia and nearby Caribbean waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for a Gale Warning in the
west-central Gulf.

An early season cold front extends southwestward from near New
Orleans to near Corpus Christi, Texas. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are occurring near the front across the
northwestern Gulf. Two surface troughs, one farther south and
another one farther southeast are producing similar conditions at
the central Gulf and southeastern Gulf near the Florida Keys and
Straits. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are
found at the northwestern Gulf. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 2
ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from the Florida Big
Bend to northeast Mexico near 24N98W tonight, and from near Ft.
Myers Florida to near Tampico, Mexico by Tue morning, and from
south Florida to near Veracruz by Tue night. It is expected to
exit the Gulf on Wed. Strong winds are expected across most of the
western Gulf behind the front, with gale force winds developing
offshore of Tampico, Mexico, Tue and spreading to the western Bay
of Campeche Tue night through Wed night. Winds may briefly gust
to gale force over the NW Gulf late tonight into Tue. Winds will
gradually diminish beginning on Thu as high pressure becomes
centered over the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
precede the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Island heating with light trades are allowing isolated
thunderstorms to form near the southern coast of Hispaniola and
Puerto Rico. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves
sections for additional weather in the basin. Moderate easterly
trades and seas of 3 to 4 ft exist at the south-central basin,
north of Colombia. Light to gentle trades with 1 to 3 ft seas
prevail for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas across most of the Caribbean will diminish to mainly light
to gentle wind speeds through Tue. Gentle to moderate winds are
forecast for the eastern and central Caribbean Tue night into Thu
night as two tropical waves move across the region. Otherwise, a
cold front is forecast to reach from western Cuba to the Yucatan
Channel and to along the northern Yucatan Peninsula Wed night,
followed by moderate to fresh northerly winds with moderate seas.
The front will then weaken as it slowly reaches from central Cuba
to the northern Yucatan Peninsula Thu and from east-central Cuba
to Belize Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on tropical waves across
the basin.

A surface trough curves southwestward from east of Bermuda across
31N60W to northeast of the southeast Bahamas at 24N71W. Scattered
moderate convection is present near and up to 380 nm east and
south of this feature. Divergent winds associated with an upper-
level low at 20N50W is triggering scattered moderate convection
from 16N to 25N between 42W and 50W. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for more convection in the
Atlantic Basin. Moderate to locally fresh westerly winds and seas
of 5 to 7 ft are present near the surface trough north of 24N
between 57W and 62W. Otherwise, a modest Atlantic ridge is
supporting light to gentle winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft north of
22N between the northwest African coast and Georgia-Florida coast.
To the south outside the influence of the eastern Atlantic
tropical wave, gentle to moderate NE to E trades with 3 to 6 ft
are present north of 11N between the central African coast and
Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate monsoonal and southerly winds
and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move offshore the
southeastern U.S. this evening, reach from near 31N76W to Fort
Pierce, Florida Tue afternoon and from near 31N70W to the NW
Bahamas Wed. This front will become stationary from near Bermuda
to the central Bahamas, then weaken through Fri. Fresh S winds
are forecast ahead of the front and north and northeast of the
Bahamas Mon night through Wed, with fresh to strong N winds
expected Wed through Thu. A trough is expected to form offshore
from northern Florida Fri and Fri night. Low pressure may form
from the trough afterward.

$$

Chan
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