[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172201
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Oct 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from Alabama to
southern Texas. The front will reach from near Tampa Bay,
Florida to NE Mexico near 25N98W by Tue morning, and from the
Florida Keys to the central Bay of Campeche by Wed morning. Gale
force winds and building seas of up to 14 or 16 ft will are
expected in the wake of the front over the western Gulf. Gales
are forecast near the Tampico area late Tue morning into the
afternoon hours, spreading into the Veracruz region Tue night
into Wed. Winds will diminish below gale force by Wed night.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 19W from
16N southward, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 04N to 10N between 16W and 21W.

The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 36W from 16N
southward, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 12N between 30W
and 40W.

The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 54W from 17N
southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant
convection is present.

The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 76W, from 16N
southward, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 74W and 78W.

The axis of a Gulf of Mexico tropical wave is near 93W south of
21N across southeastern Mexico into the East Pacific, moving
west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in
the Bay of Campeche.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 14N17W to
09N40W. The ITCZ continues from 09N40W to 11N50W. Aside from
convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section above,
scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 15N between
22W and 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for a Gale Warning in the
west-central Gulf.

A cold front extends from Alabama to southern Texas. Moderate to
fresh NE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are noted over the
northwestern Gulf behind the front. Light to gentle winds and
seas of 1 to 2 ft prevail over the remainder of the Gulf.

For the forecast, aside from the gale conditions, high pressure
will build in the wake of the front with improving conditions
for the end of the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gentle to moderate winds are found over the south central
Caribbean. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in
the 3-4 ft range over the south central Caribbean, and 1-3 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds and slight to
moderate seas are expected across most of the Caribbean during
the next several days. A cold front is forecast to reach from
western Cuba to the Yucatan Channel and to along the northern
Yucatan Peninsula by Thu morning followed by moderate to fresh
northerly winds with moderate seas. The front will extend from
central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Thu afternoon, then stall
while gradually weakening Fri into Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 31N58W to 24N68W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 300 nm
east of the trough axis. Gentle to moderate winds prevail in the
vicinity of the trough. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere
north of 20N. South of 20N, fresh to locally strong winds are in
the vicinity of the tropical wave near 36W, with gentle to
moderate winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas of 4-6 ft are noted
north of 20N, reaching near 8 ft north of 27N between 27N and
40W. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail south of 20N.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move offshore NE
Florida this evening, reach from near 31N77W to Daytona Beach,
Florida Tue morning, from near 31N72W to the NW Bahamas and the
Florida Keys by Wed morning, and from near Bermuda to the central
Bahamas and western Cuba by Thu morning. Fresh to strong S to SW
winds are forecast ahead of the front and north and northeast of
the Bahamas tonight and Tue. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds
will follow the front. Seas will build to 8 ft in the wake of the
front.

$$
AL
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