[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171019
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Oct 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will move into the NW
this morning. The front will exit the southeastern Gulf by
Wednesday. Strong winds are expected across most of the western
Gulf behind the front, with gale force northerly winds of 30-40 kt
developing offshore Tampico, Mexico on Tue and spreading to the
western Bay of Campeche Tue night and Wed. Winds may briefly gust
to gale force over the NW Gulf late tonight into Tue. Winds will
gradually diminish beginning on Thu as high pressure becomes
centered over the region. Wave heights are forecast to build to 12
ft by Wednesday, and reach 16 ft in the southwestern Gulf Wed
afternoon and night. Wave heights will slowly subside Thu and Thu
night. The strongest winds and highest seas will be off the
Mexican State of Veracruz.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W from
02N to 13N moving westward at 5-10 kt. A large area of numerous
moderate to isolated convection is seen from 07N to 15N between
28W-32W and from 06N to 11N between 32W-40W. An overnight ASCAT
data pass revealed fresh to strong southwest winds south of the
where the wave axis crosses the monsoon trough to near 06N. These
winds appear to have been enhanced by the gradient produced by the
ongoing convection.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 53W from 03N
to 17N moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are along and within 240 nm east of the wave.
Similar activity is near the northern part of the wave due to
mainly a small upper-level low that is located near 19N52W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 63W from
03N to 18N moving westward around 10 kt. No significant
convection is occurring with this wave.

A central American tropical wave is along 91W south of 20N. It is
moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection, in clusters, is over southeastern Mexico, El
Salvador, Guatemala, Belize and western Honduras. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are over the western part of Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from southern Senegal
southwestward to 08N22W and to 09N28W to 11N33W to 08N41W, where
latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the
ITCZ northwestward to 09N44W and to 11N48W. In addition to
convection associated with the tropical wave along 35W, scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 240 nm northeast
of the ITCZ between 45W-48W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 05N to 09N between 20W-25W, and from 07N to 13N between the
coast of Africa and 19W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge over the southeastern United States extends
into the Gulf of Mexico, with its associated gradient allowing
for generally light to moderate easterly winds along with
wave heights of 2-3 ft, except for lighter higher wave heights of
3-4 ft in the eastern Bay of Campeche. A weak surface trough is
analyzed across the NE Gulf along 88W and N of 24N with no
significant convection at this time. The rest of the basin enjoys
fairly tranquil weather conditions.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms moving westward are just
inland the western Yucatan Peninsula south of 20N. This activity
is moving offshore over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Numerous
showers and thunderstorms are just inland the coast of
southeastern Mexico between 92W-95W.

For the forecast, a cold front will enter the NW Gulf this
morning, reach from the Florida panhandle to southern Texas
tonight, and from the Florida southwest coast to near Veracruz,
Mexico by Tue night. The cold front is expected to exit the Gulf
on Wed. Strong winds are expected across most of the western Gulf
behind the front, with gale force winds developing offshore
Tampico, Mexico, Tue and spreading to the western Bay of Campeche
Tue night and Wed. Winds may briefly gust to gale force over the
NW Gulf late tonight into Tue. Winds will gradually diminish
beginning on Thu as high pressure becomes centered over the
region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will precede the
front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on a tropical wave over
the eastern Caribbean.

The majority of the Caribbean is under a dry air mass and sinking
air as northwest upper-level winds have settled in over the
central and western sections of the sea behind a rather broad
upper-level trough. This is suppressing the development of any
significant convection. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms
are noted over the far southwestern Caribbean, where the eastern
segment of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough protrudes. Moderate
easterly trade winds are in the the central Caribbean and the
Gulf of Honduras along with wave heights of 3-5 ft. Elsewhere,
light to gentle trade winds and wave heights of 1-3 ft continue.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas across most of the Caribbean will diminish to
mainly light to gentle wind speeds Mon into Tue. Locally fresh
winds in the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras will
continue tonight. Gentle to moderate winds are forecast for the
eastern and central Caribbean Tue night into Thu night as two
tropical waves move across the region. Otherwise, a cold front is
forecast to reach from western Cuba to the Yucatan Channel and to
along the northern Yucatan Peninsula Wed night followed by
moderate to fresh northerly winds with moderate waves. The front
will then weaken as it slowly reaches from central Cuba to the
northern Yucatan Peninsula Thu and from east-central Cuba to
Belize Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on tropical waves across
the basin.

The 06Z analysis has a weakening cold front extending from near
31N60W to 27N64W and to 25N68W, where it becomes a dissipating
stationary front to the central Bahamas. A surface trough extends
ahead of the front from near 31N57W to 24N61W. Scattered moderate
convection moving eastward is between the front and the trough,
and also along and within 90 nm east of the trough. Overnight
ASCAT data indicates moderate to fresh north to northeast winds
behind the front, where wave heights are 3-5 ft per altimeter
data passes. A rather weak pressure gradient that is being
anchored by a 1017 mb high center near 34N39W and a 1015 mb high
center near 32N70W is is maintaining light to gentle winds and
relatively low wave heights of 2-4 ft over the rest of the western
Atlantic.

Elsewhere across the forecast domain, mostly moderate trade winds
are in the central Atlantic from 10N to 20N and between 30W-50W.
Wave heights over these waters are in the 4-7 ft range. A
northerly swell is propagating through the eastern Atlantic
producing wave heights of 6-8 ft. Gentle to moderate trade winds
and wave heights of 3-5 ft are over the remainder of the tropical
Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned weakening cold
will become a frontal trough by early this evening. Another cold
front will move offshore the southeastern U.S. this evening, reach
from near 31N76W to Fort Pierce, Florida Tue afternoon and from
near 31N70W to the NW Bahamas Wed. This front will become
stationary from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas, then weaken
into Fri. Fresh south winds are forecast ahead of the front and
north and northeast of the Bahamas Mon night through Wed, with
fresh to strong north winds expected Wed through Thu. A trough is
expected to form offshore northern Florida Fri and Fri night. Low
pressure may form from the trough afterward.

$$
Aguirre
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