[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170412
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Oct 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will move into the NW
Gulf of Mexico by Monday morning. The front will exit the
southeastern Gulf by Wednesday. Strong winds are expected across
most of the western Gulf behind the front, with gale force
northerly winds developing offshore Tampico, Mexico on Tue and
spreading to the western Bay of Campeche Tue night and Wed.
Winds will gradually diminish beginning on Thu as high pressure
becomes centered over the region. Wave heights are forecast to
build to 12 ft by Wednesday, and reach 14 ft by early Thursday.
The strongest winds and highest seas will be off the Mexican
State of Veracruz.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 34W, from 02N to
13N, moving W at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 05N to 12N, between 28W and 40W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 52W, from 02N to
16N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered weak convection is observed
from 11N to 24N, between 44W and 53W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends along 62W, from 03N
to 18N, moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection associated
with this wave.

A central American tropical wave extends along 90W, south of
20N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed over SE Mexico, El Salvador, Guatemala, Belize,
Honduras and Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to
07N40W. The ITCZ continues from 07N40W to 06N50W. In addition to
convection associated with a tropical wave outlined earlier,
isolated weak convection is observed within 300 nm of the
monsoon trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge over the SE United States extends into the
Gulf of Mexico, supporting light to moderate easterly winds and
seas of 1-3 ft. A weak surface trough is analyzed across the NE
Gulf along 88W and N of 24N with no significant convection at
this time. The rest of the basin enjoys fairly tranquil weather
conditions.

For the forecast, a cold front will enter the NW Gulf Mon, reach
from the Florida panhandle to southern Texas Mon night and from
the Florida southwest coast to near Veracruz, Mexico by Tue night.
The cold front is expected to exit the Gulf on Wed. Strong winds
are expected across most of the western Gulf behind the front,
with gale force winds developing offshore Tampico, Mexico, Tue and
spreading to the western Bay of Campeche Tue night and Wed. Winds
will gradually diminish beginning on Thu as high pressure becomes
centered over the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will precede the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
across the basin.

The majority of the Caribbean is under a dry airmass, suppressing
the development of any significant convection. Moderate easterly
trade winds are noted in the central Caribbean and the Gulf of
Honduras, along with seas of 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle
trades and seas of 1-3 ft prevail.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas across most of the Caribbean will diminish to
mainly light to gentle wind speeds Mon into Tue. Locally fresh
winds in the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras will
continue tonight. Gentle to moderate winds are forecast for the
eastern and central Caribbean Tue night into Thu night as two
tropical waves move across the region. Otherwise, a cold front is
forecast to reach from western Cuba to the Yucatan Channel and to
along the northern Yucatan Peninsula Wed night followed by
moderate to fresh northerly winds with moderate waves. The front
will then weaken as it slowly reaches from central Cuba to the
northern Yucatan Peninsula and from east-central Cuba to Belize
Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
across the basin.

A cold front extends from 31N62W to the central Bahamas near
23N75W. A surface trough extends ahead of the front from 31N58W
to 21N66W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 23N to
31N, between 56W and 71W. Recent scatterometer data found
moderate to fresh N-NE winds behind the front where seas are 3-5
ft. Conditions are favorable through the remainder of the
western Atlantic with light to gentle winds and 2-4 ft seas.

Elsewhere in the basin, moderate easterly trades are noted in
the central Atlantic from 10N to 20N and between 30W and 50W.
Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate northerly swell of
6-8 ft is propagating south of 31N in the eastern Atlantic.
Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3-5 ft are prevalent in the
remainder of the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak cold front extends from
near 31N62W to 27N67W and to 25N71W, where it becomes stationary
to the central Bahamas. The cold front will become stationary
from near 31N60W to 23N70W Mon, and dissipate by Tue. Another
cold front will move offshore the southeastern U.S. Mon evening,
reach from near 31N76W to Fort Pierce, Florida Tue afternoon and
from near 31N70W to the NW Bahamas Wed. This front will become
stationary from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas, then weaken
into Fri. Fresh south winds are forecast ahead of the front
north and northeast of the Bahamas Mon night through Wed, with
fresh to strong N winds expected Wed through Thu.

$$
Flynn
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