[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162253
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Oct 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W, south
of 13N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring from 04N to 14N and between 25W and 41W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 52W, south of
17N, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is interacting with an upper
level low to the west, resulting in scattered showers from 11N to
24N and between 42W and 52W.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 62W,
south of 18N, moving W at 10 kt. There is no significant
convection associated with this wave.

A tropical wave has its axis along 89W and south of 20N, moving W
at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and west of
the wave axis affecting the Yucatan Peninsula and Guatemala.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 12N17W to 09N19W to 12N31W to 05N43W. The convection
present in the vicinity of the trough is described in the
Tropical Waves section above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge over the eastern United States extends weakly
into the Gulf of Mexico, supporting light to moderate easterly
winds and seas of 1-3 ft. A weak surface trough is analyzed across
the NE Gulf along 88W and N of 27N with no significant convection
at this time. The rest of the basin enjoys fairly tranquil
weather conditions.

For the forecast, a cold front will enter the NW Gulf Mon,
supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across the basin as
it reaches from Cape San Blas to Deep South Texas Mon night and
from S of Fort Myers, Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico, Tue night.
The cold front will exit the basin Wed. Strong winds are expected
across much of the western Gulf behind the front, with gales
developing offshore Tampico, Mexico, Tue and spreading to the
western Bay of Campeche Tue night. Winds will gradually diminish
starting Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
across the basin.

A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms is affecting the
waters of the SW Caribbean, within 120 nm of the coast of Panama,
associated with low-level convergence in the area. The rest of the
Caribbean is under a dry airmass, suppressing the development of
any significant convection. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds
are noted in the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras,
along with seas of 3-6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle trades and
seas of 1-3 ft prevail.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
will persist across most areas of the Caribbean through tonight,
then diminish to mainly light to gentle wind speeds Mon into Tue.
Locally fresh winds in the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf
of Honduras will continue into tonight. Gentle to moderate winds
are forecast for the eastern and central Caribbean Tue night into
Thu night as two tropical waves move across the region.
Otherwise, a cold front is forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel
Wed night along with moderate to fresh northerly winds with
moderate waves.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
across the basin.

A cold front extends from 31N65W to 23N79W. Ahead of the front, a
surface trough extends from 31N61W to 21N74W. The trough combined
with divergence aloft supports scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms N of 23N between 58W-73W. Moderate to fresh NE
winds and seas of 3-5 ft are occurring behind the cold front. In
the rest of the western Atlantic W of 55W, the weather conditions
are fairly tranquil, while light to gentle winds and 2-4 ft seas
are prevalent.

Elsewhere in the basin, moderate to fresh easterly trades are
noted in the central Atlantic from 06N to 20N and between 29W and
50W. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Recent altimeter satellite
data depicts seas up to 8 ft near 11N35W. Gentle to moderate
winds and seas of 2-5 ft are prevalent in the remainder of the
tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
continue moving E tonight, then stall from near 31N60W to 23N70W
Mon, and dissipate by Tue. Another cold front will move offshore
the SE U.S. Mon night, then reach 31N70W to the NW Bahamas Wed.
This front will stall Thu from Bermuda to the central Bahamas,
then weaken into Fri. Fresh S winds are forecast ahead of the
front N and NE of the Bahamas Mon night through Wed, with fresh to
strong N winds expected Wed through Thu.

$$
ERA
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