[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161700
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Oct 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1655 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 34W, south
of 13N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is occurring from 05N to 14N and between 27W and 45W. A
recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to strong
southerly winds from 08N to 14N and between 28W and 35W, likely
associated with the stronger convection in the area.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 51W, south of
17N, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is interacting with an upper
level low to the west, resulting in scattered showers from 14N to
25N and between 41W and 51W.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 61W,
south of 18N, moving W at 10 kt. There is no significant
convection associated with this wave.

A tropical wave has its axis along 88W, south of 20N, extending
from Yucatan to Honduras and El Salvador and into the Eastern
Pacific. The wave is moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are seen in
the Gulf of Honduras offshore waters and in the eastern Pacific.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 13N17W to 09N22W to 11N30W to 08N41W. A few showers
are observed south of the monsoon trough and near the coast of
Africa.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge over the eastern United States extends weakly into the
Gulf of Mexico, supporting light to locally moderate easterly
winds and seas of 1-3 ft. The remnants of Karl continue to produce
a few showers off the coast of Veracruz in the SW Bay of Campeche,
while a weak surface trough in the NE Gulf sustains similar
convection. The rest of the basin enjoys fairly tranquil weather
conditions.

For the forecast, a cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Mon
supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across the basin
as it reaches from Cape San Blas to S of Corpus Christi, Texas Mon
night and from S of Fort Myers, Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico,
Tue night. The cold front will exit the basin Wed night. Strong
winds are expected across much of the western Gulf behind the
front, with gales developing offshore Tampico, Mexico, Tue and
spreading to the western Bay of Campeche Tue night. Winds will
gradually diminish starting Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A few showers dot the waters off southern Cuba and Hispaniola. A
more robust line of showers and isolated thunderstorms is
affecting the waters of the SW Caribbean, within 120 nm of the
coast of Panama, associated with low-level convergence in the
area. The rest of the Caribbean is under a dry airmass,
suppressing the development of any significant convection.
Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds are noted in the central
Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras, along with seas of 3-6 ft.
Elsewhere, light to gentle trades and seas of 1-3 ft prevail.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
will persist across most areas of the Caribbean through tonight
and diminish to mainly light to gentle wind speeds Mon into Tue.
Locally fresh winds in the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf
of Honduras will continue into tonight. Moderate winds are
forecast for the eastern and central Caribbean Tue night into Thu
night as two tropical waves move across the region. Otherwise, a
cold front is forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel Thu along
with moderate to fresh northerly winds with moderate waves.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N66W to Andros Island in the NW
Bahamas. Ahead of the front, a surface trough and divergence loft
support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from the
central Bahamas to north of our area and between the frontal
boundary and 60W. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 3-5 ft
are occurring behind the cold front. In the rest of the western
Atlantic, W of 55W, the weather conditions are fairly tranquil,
while light to gentle winds and 2-4 ft seas are prevalent.

Elsewhere in the basin, moderate to fresh easterly trades are
noted in the central Atlantic from 06N to 20N and between 29W and
50W. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. An altimeter satellite pass
from a few hours ago showed seas up to 8 ft near 11N35W. Moderate
or weaker winds and seas of 2-5 ft are prevalent in the remainder
of the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
slide east into tonight, then stall E of 65W Mon night, and
dissipate Tue. Another cold front will move offshore the SE U.S.
Tue morning, then reach 31N68W to the Central Bahamas Wed evening.
This front will stall Thu from Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Thu,
then weaken Thu night. Fresh S winds are forecast ahead of the
front N and NE of the Bahamas Mon night into Wed night, with fresh
to strong N winds expected behind the front Wed through Thu.

$$
DELGADO
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