[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Oct 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0950 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends along 33W, from 02N to 13N, moving west
at 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
observed from 05N to 12N, between 27W and 40W.

A tropical wave extends along 49W, from 04N to 18N, moving west
at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 08N to
23N, between 40W and 50W.

A tropical wave extends along 59W, from 05N to 18N, moving west
at 10 kt. There is no significant convection associated with this
wave.

A tropical wave extends along 86W/87W, south of 20N. Scattered
showers are in the Gulf of Honduras offshore waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 13N17W
SW to 09N28W to 07N40W. Aside from the convection associated with
the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is observed
from 02N to 12N, between 09W and 26W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface high pressure anchored off the Carolinas extends a ridge
SW across the northern Gulf waters and provides gentle to moderate
E to SE winds and a gentle breeze basin-wide. Middle to upper
level dry air subsidence support fair weather conditions across
most of the basin, except for scattered showers in the Bay of
Campeche being supported by shallow moisture.

For the forecast, a cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Mon
supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across the basin as
it reaches from Cape San Blas, Florida to Corpus Christi, Texas
Mon night, from Fort Myers, Florida SW to Veracruz, Mexico
offshore waters Tue night and then exit the basin on Thu. Fresh to
near gale force winds following the front will increase to gale
force winds along the E Mexico offshore waters Tue afternoon
through Wed evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds in the Bay of
Campeche are forecast to diminish to moderate to fresh speeds on
Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the tropical waves section for information about the
tropical wave in the W Caribbean.

High pressure centered off The Carolinas extends a ridge S to just
N of Cuba, which is slightly tightening the pressure gradient
across the NW and central Caribbean where moderate to locally
fresh trade winds are observed. Seas in these regions range
between 3 to 5 ft. A weaker pressure gradient in the E Caribbean
support gentle to locally moderate winds and seas to 3 ft.
Otherwise, the E extension of the E Pacific monsoon trough is
generating scattered showers and tstms in the Panama and Colombia
offshore waters.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas will persist across most areas of the Caribbean through
tonight and diminish to mainly light to gentle wind speeds Mon
into Tue. Locally fresh winds in the south-central Caribbean and
the Gulf of Honduras will continue through tonight. Moderate winds
are forecast for the eastern and central Caribbean Tue night into
Thu night as two tropical waves move across the region. Otherwise,
a cold front is forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel Thu afternoon
along with moderate to fresh northerly winds and moderate waves.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from around 31N67W to Nassau in the
Bahamas. Moderate N to NE winds follow the front, which is
supporting seas to 5 ft to the NE of the northern Bahamas. Ahead
of the front, a surface trough and middle to upper level diffluent
flow support scattered moderate convection N of 23N between 60W
and 68W. Weak surface ridging dominates the remainder subtropical
Atlantic waters where winds are mainly light to gentle and
variable, except in the central waters where moderate winds and
seas to 5 ft dominate the region. Otherwise, scattered moderate
convection is also observed ahead of a second surface trough N of
27N between 46W and 52W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will slide east
through today, and move E of the area Mon night before
dissipating. Another cold front will move offshore the SE U.S. Tue
morning, reach from Bermuda to the central Bahamas Wed evening
and then stall Thu before weakening further Thu night. Moderate to
fresh southerly winds are forecast ahead of the front to the N
and NE of the Bahamas Mon night through Wed night while fresh to
strong northerly winds are forecast behind the front Wed through
Thu.

$$
Ramos
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