[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Oct 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Karl, at 13/1800 UTC, is near 21.2N
93.7W, or about 345 km/186 nm to the north of Coatzacoalcos in
Mexico. Karl is moving SSE, or 155 degrees, 05 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 40 knots with gusts to 50 kt. Tropical
storm force winds are within: 60 nm of the center in the NE
quadrant, within 70 nm of the center in the SE quadrant, within
50 nm of the center in the SW quadrant, and within 30 nm of the
center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights that are 12 feet or
higher are within: 60 nm of the center in the NE quadrant,
within 60 nm of the center in the SE quadrant, within 45 nm of
the center in the SW quadrant, and within 45 nm of the center in
the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are reaching 16 feet.
The wind speeds are ranging from 20 knots to 33 knots, and the
sea heights are ranging from 8 feet to 12 feet, elsewhere, from
21N to 23N between 93W and 95W. The wind speeds are 20 knots or
less, and the sea heights are ranging from 8 feet to 9 feet in
mixed swell, from 21N to 25N between 92W and 97W.
Precipitation: numerous strong is within 270 nm of the center in
the SE quadrant. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
elsewhere to the south of the line: 28N at the western coast of
Florida, 27N90W, 26N at the coast of Texas. Please, read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the latest
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml,for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has reached 21W/22W, from 13N
southward. The wave is moving westward from 10 knots to 15
knots. A 1013 mb low pressure center is along the tropical wave
near 07.5N. The enviornmental conditions appear to be marginally
favorable for some slow development of this system, as it moves
westward to west-northwestward, 5 to 10 mph in the tropical
Atlantic Ocean, through early next week. Precipitation: widely
scattered to isolated strong is from 01N to 11N between 16W and
31W.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/39W, from
16N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 10N to 20N between 30W and 50W.

A central Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W, from 20N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from the coast of South America to 14N between 50W and 62W. The
precipitation is occurring near the ITCZ also.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W/72W, from Hispaniola
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is between
66W and 84W. The precipitation is also near the monsoon trough,
that is in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to the 1013 mb low pressure center that is
along the 21W/22W tropical wave, to 05N40W. The ITCZ is along
08N/09N between 55W and 62W. Precipitation: please refer to the
TROPICAL WAVES section, for details about the precipitation.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, and areas of comparatively
drier air in subsidence, are from 20N northward from 30W
eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more information
about Tropical Storm Karl,
which is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the Gulf
of Mexico from 26N northward. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is in the area of the upper level cyclonic
wind flow.

Gentle to locally moderate southerly winds, and sea heights that
range from 2 feet to 5 feet, cover much of the Gulf of Mexico,
except for the SW corner.  Moderate to fresh NE to SE winds, and
sea heights that range from 6 feet to 9 feet, cover the
remainder of the SW Gulf of Mexico, away from Tropical Storm
Karl.

Tropical Storm Karl is in the southwestern Gulf near 21.7N 93.9W
1002 mb at 11 AM EDT moving SSE at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds
45 kt gusts 55 kt. Karl will weaken slightly as moves to near
21.0N 93.6W this evening with maximum sustained winds 40 kt
gusts 50 kt, then maintain intensity as it moves to near 20.0N
93.3W Fri morning, and to near 19.1N 93.4W Fri evening. Karl is
forecast to move inland near 18.0N 94.3W Sat morning, weaken to
a remnant low near 17.0N 95.0W Sat evening, and dissipate Sun
morning. Elsewhere, a weak cold front will enter the northwest
Gulf Thu, move across the central Gulf Fri and Fri night, then
stall from the Straits of Florida to vicinity Yucatan Channel
Sat through Sun night before dissipating by late Mon. Looking
ahead, a stronger cold front is expected to enter the northwest
Gulf Mon night preceded by scattered showers and thunderstorms.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough is along 10N/12N from Colombia along 74W,
westward, beyond Costa Rica, and into the tropical NE Pacific
Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 14N southward from 74W westward. This
precipitation is to the west of the Hispaniola tropical wave.

The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet in the peripheral
areas of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 5 feet to
6 feet in the broad and open areas of the Caribbean Sea.
Moderate to fresh trade winds are pulsing off the coasts of
Colombia and Venezuela. A relatively weak pressure
pattern is resulting in gentle to moderate winds in the
remainder of the area.

Moderate to fresh trade wind flow is in the south central
Caribbean Sea. The sea heights are reaching 8 ft off Colombia,
where the winds may be pulsing in the range from 20 knots to 25
knots.
Moderate winds and seas are in the remainder of the area.

Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, will
persist across most areas of the Caribbean into early next week.
A weak cold front will stall near the Yucatan Channel Sat
through Sun night and dissipate by late Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A low pressure center, and a surface trough, are in the coastal
waters of Georgia and South Carolina. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 23N northward from
65W westward.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, and areas of widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong convective precipitation, are from
18N northward between 34W and 62W. A surface trough is along
31N51W to 25N57W to 18N58W.  from 18N northward between 34W and
62W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow, with a ridge, covers the
Atlantic Ocean from the surface trough eastward.

Fresh E winds may be near the northern approaches of the
Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to
moderate seas, are in the remainder of the areas that are from
60W westward. Moderate winds and seas are elsewhere from 35W
westward. Fresh to strong NE winds, and rough seas are off the
northwest coast of Africa north of 15N, from 35W eastward.

Broad high pressure over the area is shifting eastward ahead of
a cold front that will move off the coast of northeast Florida
tonight. The front will continue southeastward and reach from
Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by Sat night, then become
mostly stationary along 24N Sun before dissipating
through late Mon.

$$
mt/ja
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