[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132313
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Oct 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Karl is centered near 20.9N 93.5W at 13/2100 UTC
or 170 nm NNE of Coatzacoalcos Mexico moving SSE at 6 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is noted from 18N-23N between 89W-96W. Scattered
moderate convection prevails across the southern Gulf waters from
23N-26N between 80W-89W. Seas of 12 ft or greater are expected
within 30 nm in the N semicircle, 60 nm SE quadrant and 45 nm SW
quadrant, with maximum seas of 16 ft. Karl is expected to turn
southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche on
Friday, and this motion should continue through early Saturday. On
the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coasts of
Tabasco or Veracruz states in Mexico within the warning area late
Friday night or early Saturday. Swells generated by Karl are
expected to affect the Mexican coastline for the next couple of
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office for more details.

Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the latest
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml,for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed with axis from
17N22W to 1010 mb low near 08N22W to 03N22W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 02N-08N between 19W-24W. The wave is
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Environmental conditions appear to
be marginally favorable for some slow development of this system,
as it moves westward to west- northwestward, 5 to 10 kt in the
tropical Atlantic Ocean, through early next week.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 39W, from
16N southward, moving westward from 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers
are noted across the northern portion of the wave mainly N of
13N.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along
55W, from 20N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No
significant convection is noted near the wave at this time.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 73W,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted across
the southern portion of the wave, which currently extends across
NE Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 06N40W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 02N-12N between 23W-31W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information
about Tropical Storm Karl, which is in the SW corner of the Gulf
of Mexico.

Outside of T.S. Karl and associated convection, a surface ridge
continues to stretch westward from central Florida to southern
Texas. The ridge promotes gentle to moderate southerly winds and
seas at 2 to 5 ft across the northern, southeastern and south-
central Gulf. Moderate to fresh NE to SE winds and seas of 6 to 9
ft prevail at the remainder of the southern Gulf.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Karl will move to near 20.1N
93.2W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt,
maintain intensity as it moves to near 19.1N 93.1W Fri, then move
inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 18.2N 93.5W Sat
morning with maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Karl is
forecast to become post-tropical as it moves inland near 17.2N
94.4W Sat afternoon and dissipate Sun morning. Elsewhere, a
stationary front over eastern Texas extends to the western part of
Louisiana, where it becomes a cold front east-northeast from
there to across Georgia. The cold front will drop southward over
the far northern Gulf by late tonight, then move across the
central Gulf Fri and Fri night and stall from the Straits of
Florida to vicinity Yucatan Channel Sat through Sun night before
dissipating by late Mon. Looking ahead, a stronger cold front is
expected to enter the northwest Gulf Mon night preceded by
scattered showers and thunderstorms. This next front may reach the
far southeastern Gulf late on Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving across the basin.

Moderate to fresh trade winds are pulsing off the coast of Colombia
and Venezuela. Elsewhere, a relatively weak pressure pattern is
resulting in gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
across the basin. No significant convection is noted across the
basin at this time.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas will persist across most areas of the Caribbean into early
next week. A weak cold front will stall near the Yucatan Channel
Sat through Sun night and dissipate by late Mon. Another front
may approach the southeastern Gulf late Tue.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A low pressure system centered north of the area is supporting a
trough that extends from 31N78W to 26N80W. Scattered moderate
convection prevails across the W Atlantic mainly W of 68W. To the
east, another trough extends from 31N54W to 20N57W with scattered
showers. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic
Ocean from the surface trough eastward. Fresh E winds may be near
the northern approaches of the Windward Passage. Gentle to
moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, are in the remainder
of the areas that are from 60W westward. Moderate winds and seas
are elsewhere from 35W westward. Fresh to strong NE winds, and
rough seas are off the northwest coast of Africa north of 15N,
from 35W eastward.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move off the
coast of northeast Florida tonight. The front will continue
southeastward and reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by
Sat night, then become mostly stationary along 24N Sun before
dissipating through late Mon. Another cold front will move over
the waters east of northern Florida Mon and Mon night, reach from
near 31N76W to Vero Beach, Florida Tue morning and from near
31N73W to South Florida late Tue.

$$
ERA
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