[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130959
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Oct 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0950 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Karl is stationary over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico near 22.4N 94.4W at 13/0900 UTC, or 220 nm NNE of Veracruz
Mexico. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. The low level
center of Karl is almost entirely exposed due to strong westerly
shear. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed
well east of the center, from 20N to 23N between 91W and 93W. Seas
are peaking at 16 ft near and northeast of the center. Karl is
expected to move slowly southeastward and southward into the Bay
of Campeche during the next couple of days, with the center reaching
the Mexican coast in Tabasco or Veracruz states by Saturday
morning. Karl should maintain its current intensity through tonight,
before a gradual weakening trend on Fri. Heavy rainfall could
cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of higher
terrain across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco and Chiapas states in
Mexico. Large swell produced by Karl will create dangerous rip
currents and surf conditions along the Mexico coast. Please read
the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 20W from 13N
southward, and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 20W and 28W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W from 15N southward,
and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
seen from 13N to 15N between 31W and 35W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 51W from 16N southward,
and moving west around 10 kt. No significant convection is found
near this wave at the latest analysis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 70W from the Dominican
Republic southward into northwestern Venezuela, and moving west at
5-10 kt. No significant convection is found near this wave at the
latest analysis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends southwestward from near the Mauritania-
Senegal border to a 1010 mb low near 08N23W, then turns
northwestward to 12N33W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 20W and 28W. An ITCZ
reaches westward from 08N37W to east of the French Guiana-Brazil
border at 06N50W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of Panama from
10N to 13N between 73w and 80W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Karl in the southwestern Gulf.

A few showers and thunderstorms are lingering from the previous
evening across the Straits of Florida. However, outside of the
convection northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula associated with T.S.
Karl, most of the earlier showers and thunderstorms that were
flaring over the central and eastern Caribbean have diminished
across the basin. A mid/upper level disturbance moving across the
lower Mississippi Valley is supporting a line of showers and
thunderstorms inland near the Gulf coast from eastern Texas to
southern Alabama. A surface ridge continues to stretch westward
from central Florida to southern Texas. It is promoting gentle to
locally moderate southerly winds and seas at 2 to 5 ft across the
northern, southeastern and south- central Gulf. Outside the
influence of Tropical Storm Karl, moderate to fresh NE to SE winds
and seas of 6 to 9 ft prevail at the southwestern Gulf.

For the forecast, Karl will move to 21.7N 93.9W this afternoon,
20.7N 93.6W Fri morning, 19.7N 93.5W Fri afternoon, and 18.7N
93.9W Sat morning. Karl will move inland over southern Mexico and
weaken to a tropical depression near 17.4N 94.6W Sat afternoon,
become a remnant low near 16.4N 95.4W Sun morning, then dissipate
by early Mon. Elsewhere, a weak cold front will enter the
northwest Gulf Thu, move across the central Gulf Fri and Fri
night, then stall from the Straits of Florida to vicinity Yucatan
Channel Sat through Sun night before dissipating by late Mon.
Looking ahead, a stronger cold front may enter the northwest Gulf
Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh trade winds are pulsing off the coast of
Colombia and Venezuela. Elsewhere, a relatively weak pressure
pattern is resulting in gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas across the basin. Outside of the convection already
described north of Panama, there is no significant convection
across the basin.

For the forecast, little change in winds and seas through early
next week. A weak cold front will stall near the Yucatan Channel
Sat through Sun night and dissipate by late Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid/upper level disturbance is supporting clusters of showers
and thunderstorms off northeast Florida, north of 27N and east of
70W. Fresh E winds may be near the northern approaches of the
Windward Passage, but gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas are noted west of 60W. A negatively tilted upper
trough along 60N north of 30N is supporting showers and
thunderstorms within 90 nm east of a weak stationary front
reaching from 31N52W to 25N60W. Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere
west of 35W. East of 35W, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas
are noted off the northwest coast of Africa north of 15N.

For the forecast west of 55W, broad high pressure over the area
is shifting eastward ahead of a cold front that will move off the
coast of northeast Florida tonight. The front will continue
southeastward and reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by
Sat night, then become mostly stationary along 24N Sun before
dissipating through late Mon.

$$
Christensen
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