[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Oct 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Karl is centered near 22.4N 94.3W at 13/0300 UTC
or 220 nm NNE of Veracruz, Mexico and quasi stationary. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are peaking at 16 to 19
ft near and northeast of the center. Numerous moderate to
scattered strong convection is noted near the center and within
120 nm in the SE quadrant. Karl is forecast to move little
overnight but a slow motion toward the southeast is expected to
begin Thu morning, then follow by a southward turn on Fri. On the
forecast track, Karl will be approaching the coast of Mexico near
Tabasco and Veracruz states Fri night or early Sat. Karl should
maintain its current intensity through Thu night, before a
gradual weakening trend on Fri. Heavy rainfall could cause flash
flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain
across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco and Chiapas states in
Mexico. Large swell produced by Karl will create dangerous rip
currents and surf conditions along the Mexico coast. Please read
the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 18W from 13N southward,
and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 04N to 12N between 14W and 20W.

A eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 34W from 15N southward,
and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
seen from 11N to 15N between 29W and 34W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 50W from 16N southward,
and moving west around 10 kt. No significant convection is found
near this wave at the latest analysis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 69W from the Dominican
Republic southward into northwestern Venezuela, and moving west
at 5-10 kt. No significant convection is found
near this wave at the latest analysis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends southwestward from near the Mauritania-
Senegal border to a 1009 mb low near 08N23W, then turns
northwestward to 11N33W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is flaring up near the low from 04N to 10N between 20W
and 26W. An ITCZ reaches westward from 08N35W to east of the
French Guiana-Brazil border at 05N48W. Scattered showers are
present near and up to 90 nm north of the ITCZ.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over Panama and
northwestern Colombia, and nearby Caribbean waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Karl in the southwestern Gulf.

Convergent southerly winds are coupling with divergent flow aloft
to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the
central and eastern Gulf, including the Florida west coast. A
surface ridge stretches westward from central Florida to southern
Texas. It is promoting gentle to locally moderate southerly winds
and seas at 2 to 5 ft across the northern, southeastern and south-
central Gulf. Outside the influence of Tropical Storm Karl,
moderate to fresh NE to SE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft prevail at
the southwestern Gulf.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Karl will move to 22.0N 94.0W
Thu morning, 21.1N 93.7W Thu evening, 20.1N 93.5W Fri morning, and
19.1N 93.6W Fri evening. Karl will move inland over southern
Mexico to 18.1N 94.2W Sat morning, weaken to a remnant low near
16.9N 94.7W Sat evening, and dissipate by late Sun. Elsewhere, a
weak cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf Thu, move across
the central Gulf Fri and Fri night, then stall from the Straits
of Florida to near the Yucatan Channel Sat through Sun night
before dissipating by late Mon. Looking ahead, a stronger cold
front may enter the northwest Gulf Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trades are generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms near western and central Cuba, and Haiti. Refer to
the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the
basin. Moderate to fresh trades are in the central Caribbean and
offshore central Honduras. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh
ENE to E trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are seen over the eastern,
central and southwestern basin. Light to gentle E to ESE trades
with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong trade winds will
pulse near the coast over the south-central basin through early
Thu. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will diminish across the
basin by late week. A weak cold front will stall near the Yucatan
Channel Sat through Sun night and dissipate by late Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough off the Georgia-Florida coast is producing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from the northwest
Bahamas northward to beyond 31N, between 73W and the Georgia-
Florida coast. The southwestern end of a stationary front and its
related surface trough are causing scattered moderate convection
well southeast of Bermuda north of 23N between 51W and 61W. Two
more surface trough embedded within the trades are creating
isolated thunderstorms from 16N to 25N between 38W and 49W. Refer
to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for
additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

The Atlantic ridge associated with a 1029 mb Azores High is
sustaining gentle to locally moderate ENE to SE winds with 3 to 5
ft seas north of 20N between 40W and the Georgia-Florida coast.
Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE
to ENE trades and seas at 5 to 8 ft are present north of 18N
between the northwest African coast and 40W. Farther south, gentle
to moderate ENE to ESE trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are evident
from 10N to 18N/20N between the central African coast and Lesser
Antilles. Light to gentle with locally moderate monsoonal and
southerly winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in southerly swell prevail for
the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, broad surface ridge over the area
will shift eastward tonight, ahead of a cold front that will move
off the coast of northeast Florida Thu night. The front will
continue southeastward and reach from Bermuda to the Straits of
Florida Sat night, then become mostly stationary along 24N Sun and
dissipate through late Mon.

$$

Chan
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