[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122144
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Oct 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2010 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Karl is centered near 22.2N 94.4W at 12/2100 UTC
or 210 nm NNE of Veracruz Mexico moving N at 2 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are currently 18
ft. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted
within 150 nm in the east semicircle, 75 nm in the SW quadrant,
and is limited in the NW quadrant. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted elsewhere within 720 nm northeast of
the center across much of the central and eastern Gulf. Karl is
forecast to move little overnight, but a slow motion to the south-
southeast is expected to begin by Thu morning. A faster generally
southward motion is forecast by late Thu, and that motion should
continue through Fri night. On the forecast track, Karl will be
approaching the coast of Mexico Fri. Some slight strengthening is
possible tonight, followed by gradual weakening until landfall.
Heavy rainfall could produce instances of flash flooding, with
mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Veracruz
and Tabasco states in Mexico.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic Ocean along 18W, from
17N southward, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 10N between 13W
and 24W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic Ocean along 32W, from
14N southward, moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 16N between 26W
and 39W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic Ocean along 50W, from
16N southward, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 39W
and 50W.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean Sea along 68W, from
south of the Anegada Passage southward to Venezuela, moving west
at 5-10 kt.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 11.5N16W to 08N21W to 10N30W. The ITCZ axis
extends from 08.5N33.5W to 07.5N48.5W, then resumes west of a
tropical wave from 07N51W to the coast of Venezuela near 09N61W.
Other than the convection described in the Tropical Waves
section, scattered moderate and isolated strong is noted from 06N
to 11N between 55W and 62W.

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from near the border of
Costa Rica and Panama to the northern coast of Colombia near
11N72W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
south of 12N between 74W and 84W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features for details on Tropical Storm
Karl located in the SW and W-central Gulf.

Across the remainder of the Gulf, a ridge axis extends along
29N/30N. Gentle to moderate return flow is under the ridge, along
with 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, Karl will move to 22.2N 94.3W late tonight, to
near 21.4N 94.0W Thu afternoon to near, 20.5N 93.8W late Thu
night, then begin to gradually weaken as it moves to near 19.5N
93.8W Fri afternoon with maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55
kt, to near 18.7N 94.0W late Fri night, and weaken to a remnant
low near 17.5N 94.7W Sat afternoon. Karl will dissipate Sun
afternoon. A weak cold front will enter the northwest Gulf by Thu,
move across the central Gulf Fri and Fri night, then stall from
the Straits of Florida to vicinity Yucatan Channel Sat through Sun
night and dissipate by late Mon. A stronger cold front followed
by fresh to strong northeast winds is expected to move across the
northern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh trades are in the central Caribbean and offshore
central Honduras. Moderate trades are elsewhere, except gentle in
the Lee of Cuba and south of 11N in the SW Caribbean. Seas are 5-7
ft in the central Caribbean, locally to 8 ft offshore Colombia,
and 3-5 ft elsewhere, except 2-4 ft in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong trade winds will
pulse near the coast over the south-central Caribbean through
early Thu. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will diminish across
the basin by late week. A weak cold front will stall near the
Yucatan Channel Sat through Sun night and dissipate by late Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Ridging is north of the area with mainly gentle to moderate NE-E
west of 60W, locally fresh offshore Hispaniola. Seas are 3-4 ft
across this area, except 4-6 ft offshore northern Florida in fresh
easterly swell. Some widely scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are noted from the central Bahamas northward and
west of 70W under upper-level diffluence. A weak frontal trough
extends from near 31N54W to near the Anegada Passage. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 26N between
51W and 62W. Ridging dominates the remainder of the basin with
gentle to moderate trades and 4-6 ft seas west of 35W. Moderate to
fresh trades and 4-6 ft seas prevail east of 35W and north of the
monsoon trough, except fresh to strong winds and 6-8 ft seas
north of 18N and east of 25W due to a locally tight pressure
gradient.

For the forecast west of 55W, broad high pressure over the area
will shift eastward tonight ahead of a cold front that will move
off the coast of northeast Florida Thu. The front will continue
southeastward and reach from Bermuda to western Cuba by Sat night,
from near 31N60W to central Cuba by Sun night, and from near
31N58W to 25N64W and stationary to the central Bahamas and as a
dissipating boundary to the Straits of Florida by late Mon.

$$
Lewitsky
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net