[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Oct 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Karl, at 12/1800 UTC, is near 22.0N
94.5W, or about 360 km/194 nm to the NNE of Veracruz in Mexico,
and about 420 km/227 nm to the north of Coatzacoalcos in Mexico.
Karl is moving N, or 010 degrees, 03 knots. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. The maximum sustained wind
speeds are 50 knots with gusts to 60 kt. Tropical storm force
winds are within: 100 nm of the center in the NE quadrant,
within 60 nm of the center in the SE quadrant, within 75 nm of
the center in the SW quadrant, and within 0 nm of the center in
the NW quadrant. The sea heights that are 12 feet or higher are
within: 60 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, within 60 nm of
the center in the SE quadrant, within 45 nm of the center in the
SW quadrant, and within 60 nm of the center in the NW quadrant.
The maximum sea heights are reaching 15 feet. The wind speeds
are ranging from 20 knots to 33 knots, and the sea heights are
ranging from 8 feet to 12 feet, elsewhere, within 150 nm NE
quadrant, 90 nm S semicircle, and 60 nm NW quadrant. The wind
speeds are  20 knots or less, and the sea heights are reaching 8
feet in mixed swell, from 20N to 21N between 94W and 96W.
Precipitation: numerous strong is within 90 nm of the center in
the NE quadrant. Scattered moderate to strong in clusters is
within 720 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that
is from the Yucatan Peninsula toward SW Florida. Please, read
the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the latest
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml,for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has reached 16W, from
12N southward. This wave just emerged from Africa.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate, and
isolated strong is from 13N southward between 10W and 24W.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W/31W, from
16N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong surrounds the tropical
wave. The same precipitation is surrounding the ITCZ.

A central Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W/49W, from
17N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is
from the ITCZ to 12N between 41W and the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W/67W to the south of
Puerto Rico, from 17N southward, moving westward from 10 knots
to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
is from 16N southward between 60W and 70W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 11N15W to 07N20W and 08N22W. The ITCZ continues from 08N22W
to 09N25W 09N32W 09N43W 07N50W 08N62W. Precipitation: widely
scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated strong, in general
is from 16N southward from 60W eastward.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow is from 24W eastward. Broad
upper level cyclonic wind flow is from 17N northward between 24W
and 46W. Some areas of comparatively drier air in subsidence are
in each section of broad upper level cyclonic wind flow.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more information
about Tropical Storm Karl,
which is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

Strong winds and rough seas are in the SW corner, away from the
main impact area of T.S. Karl. Gentle to moderate winds, and
slight to moderate seas, are elsewhere.

Tropical Storm Karl is in the southwestern Gulf, near 21.7N
94.7W 1004 mb at 11 AM EDT moving N at 3 kt. Maximum sustained
winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Karl will maintain intensity as it
moves to near 22.0N 94.8W this evening, to near 21.6N 94.8W Thu
morning, to near 20.9N 94.6W Thu evening, then begin to weaken
as it moves to near 20.0N 94.5W Fri morning with maximum
sustained wind 35 kt gusts 45 kt and move to near 19.1N 94.8W
Fri Fri evening. Karl is forecast to weaken to a remnant low
near 18.1N 95.4W Sat morning, and dissipate early Sun. A weak
cold front will enter the northwest Gulf by Thu, move across the
central Gulf Fri, then stall from the Straits of Florida to
vicinity Yucatan Channel Sat through Sun night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from Colombia along 75W,
westward, beyond Costa Rica, and into the tropical NE Pacific
Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 180
nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 77W and 81W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 15N
southward from 74W westward.

Moderate to fresh trade wind flow is in the south central
Caribbean Sea. The sea heights are reaching 8 ft off Colombia,
where the winds may be pulsing in the range from 20 knots to 25
knots. Moderate winds and seas are in the remainder of the area.

Fresh to occasionally strong trade winds will pulse near the
coast in the south central Caribbean Sea through Wed. Moderate
winds and seas will diminish across the basin by late week,
elsewhere. A weak cold front will stall near the Yucatan Channel
Sat and Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow, and areas of isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers, cover the Atlantic Ocean
from 61W westward.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are from
14N northward between 40W and 60W. A surface trough is along
30N54W 25N60W, through the Mona Passage, to 16N69W in the
Caribbean Sea. A second surface trough is along 48W/49W from 18N
to 25N, to the north of the nearby tropical wave. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 27N
northward between 50W and 61W.

Fresh to strong NE to E winds, and sea heights that range from 6
feet to 8 feet, have been in the waters that are from 30N
northward from 75W westward. Fresh winds have been near the
northern approaches of the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate
winds, and moderate seas, are from 35W westward. Moderate to
fresh NE to E winds, and moderate seas, are from 35W eastward.
The exception is for fresh to strong winds, and rough seas, off
the coast of North Africa.

Broad high pressure that is building in the area will shift
eastward through Wed, in advance of a cold front that is
expected to move off the coast of northeast Florida Thu. The
front will continue southeastward. The front will reach from
Bermuda to western Cuba by Sat night, and from near 31N60W to
central Cuba by Sun night.

$$
MT
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