[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121013
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Oct 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Karl is centered near 21.1N 94.9W at 12/0900 UTC
or 130 nm NNE of Veracruz Mexico moving NNW at 5 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas are peaking at 14 ft
near and north of the center. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring from 19N to 24n between 91W and 95W.
Karl will remain over the southwest Gulf through Fri as a
tropical storm, weaken to a remnant low Sat morning, then
dissipate by late Sat into early Sun over southern Mexico. Heavy
rainfall are anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and
Southern Sierra Madre Oriental, and adjacent coast. Swells
generate by Karl are expected to effect the Mexican coastline for
the next few days, producing life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT@.shtml and the latest Karl
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave over west-central Africa is approaching the
coastline of Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. Coupling with
convergent monsoonal winds, numerous heavy showers are seen from
03N to 10N between these coastlines and 20W. This wave is going
to exit into the Atlantic Ocean later this morning or afternoon.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 29W from west of the
Cabo Verde Islands at 16N southward, and moving west at 5 to 10
kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present near
the southern Cabo Verde Islands from 05N to 09N between 28W and
32W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 47W from 17N southward,
and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
found from 05N to 10N between 46W and 48W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 65W, and moving west
at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms are
found over central Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic at the Guinea-Bissau coast
to 07N21W. Refer to the first paragraph in the Tropical Waves
section above for convection south of the trough. A segment of
the ITCZ extends westward from 08N30W to 09N46W. Another segment
extends from 09N48W to 08N58W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 08N to 11N between 30W and 45W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered thunderstorms from central Panama to Nicaragua.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for more information on
Tropical Storm Karl located at the western Bay of Campeche.

Strong winds and rough seas continue over the southwest Gulf,
outside of the main impact area of T.S. Karl. Gentle to moderate
winds and slight to moderate seas are noted elsewhere. A few
showers and thunderstorms are active over the north-central Gulf,
following a trough over the northwest Gulf. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are active over the loop current north of the
Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, Karl will remain over the southwest Gulf and
move to 21.7N 95.1W this afternoon, 21.7N 95.3W Thu morning, 20.9N
95.4W Thu afternoon, 20.2N 95.5W Fri morning, 19.5N 95.7W Fri
afternoon, then weaken to a remnant low near 18.6N 96.1W Sat
morning. Karl will dissipate early Sun. Elsewhere, a weak cold
front will enter the northwest Gulf by Thu, move across the
central Gulf Fri, and then stall from the Straits of Florida and
Yucatan Channel Sat into Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A late evening scatterometer satellite pass confirmed moderate to
fresh trade wind flow is prevalent across the south-central
Caribbean. Convergence of the these winds is supporting the line
of scattered showers and thunderstorms between central Panama and
Nicaragua. Seas are reaching 8 ft off Colombia where winds may be
pulsing to 20 to 25 kt. Moderate winds and seas are evident
elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong trade winds will
pulse near the coast over the south-central Caribbean through mid
week. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will diminish across the
basin by late week. A weak cold front will stall near the Yucatan
Channel Sat and Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A scatterometer satellite pass from around 03Z indicated fresh to
strong NE to E winds over the waters north of 30N and east of
northeast Florida, as far east as 75W. Seas are likely about 7 or
8 ft in this area. The scatterometer pass also indicated a
surface trough along 76W from 27N to 30N. Farther east, the
southern ends of a cold front and a prefrontal trough are evident
north of 29N between 40W and 65W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are active between these features between 55W and
60W. Farther south, fresh winds are evident near the northern
approaches of the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate winds and
moderate seas are evident west of 35W. Moderate to fresh NE to E
winds are noted east of 35W, with moderate seas, except for fresh
to strong winds and rough seas off the coast of North Africa.

For the forecast west of 55W, the trough off northeast Florida
will lift northward and dissipate through early this morning as
broad high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. The high
pressure will shift east through mid week ahead of a cold front
expected to move off the coast of northeast Florida late Thu. The
front will continue southeastward and reach from Bermuda to
western Cuba by Sat night, and from 31N60W to central Cuba by Sun
night.

$$
Christensen
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