[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120606
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Oct 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 12/0300 UTC, Tropical Storm (TS) Karl is centered near 20.5N
94.9W or 110 nm NE of Veracruz, Mexico and moving NNW at 5 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas are peaking at 9 to 11
ft near and north of the center. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring within 90 nm of the center. Numerous
heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms are seen farther
northeast and southeast from the west-central Gulf southeastward
across the eastern Bay of Campeche to southeastern Mexico and
western Guatemala. Karl is forecast to gradually turn toward the
W and SW from Wed evening through Thu morning with little change
in forward speed. This will bring Karl near the Mexican coast
north of Heroica Veracruz on Thu morning. Some modest
strengthening is expected through Thu morning, then a gradual
weakening trend should follow. Heavy rainfall are anticipated
across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and Southern Sierra Madre
Oriental, and adjacent coast. Swells generate by Karl are
expected to effect the Mexican coastline for the next few days,
producing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT@.shtml and the latest Karl
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave over west-central Africa is approaching the
coastline of Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. Coupling with
convergent monsoonal winds, numerous heavy showers are seen from
03N to 10N between these coastlines and 18W. This wave is going to
exit into the Atlantic Ocean on Wed morning or afternoon.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 28W from west of the
Cabo Verde Islands at 16N southward, and moving west around 5 kt.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present near
the southern Cabo Verde Islands from 11N to 15N between 23W and
27W, and farther south from 03N to 08N between 25W and 29W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 46W from 17N southward,
and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
found from 05N to 10N between 44W and 47W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 63W from near Anguilla
southward into northeastern Venezuela, and moving west near 15
kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present
across the Windward Islands, and Trinidad and Tobago. Scattered
heavy showers and thunderstorms are found over central Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic at the Guinea-Bissau coast
to 07N21W. Refer to the first paragraph in the Tropical Waves
section above for convection south of the trough. An ITCZ
extends westward from 08N29W to 09N44W then, from 08N48W to
just east of northern Guyana at 08N58W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed up to 120 nm north, and 160 nm south of
both ITCZ segments.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
isolated thunderstorms near Panama and northwestern Colombia, and
nearby Caribbean waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for more information on
Tropical Storm Karl located at the western Bay of Campeche.

A surface trough is triggering widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms at the north-central Gulf. Convergent
easterly winds are generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms at the southeastern Gulf, including the southwest
coast of Florida. Outside the influence of Tropical Storm Karl,
fresh to strong E to SE winds with 6 to 9 ft seas are present over
the west-central Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to
moderate with locally fresh ESE to SE winds and seas of 2 to 5 ft
prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Karl will move to 21.0N 95.3W
Wed morning, 21.4N 95.6W Wed evening, 21.1N 95.9W Thu morning, and
20.2N 96.2W Thu evening. Karl will move inland over Mexico to
19.4N 96.6W Fri morning, weaken to a remnant low near 19.1N 97.1W
Fri evening, before dissipating by late Sat. Elsewhere, a cold
front will enter the northwest Gulf by Thu. The front will reach
the central Gulf Fri, and move southeast of the Gulf Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A mid-level trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms at the southwestern basin, just east of the
Honduras-Nicaragua coast. Convergent trades are causing isolated
thunderstorms near the Windward Passage and the southern coast of
Cuba. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional weather
in the basin. Fresh to strong ENE trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are
evident at the south-central basin, just north of Colombia. Fresh
easterly winds with 5 to 6 ft seas are seen at the Gulf of
Honduras. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft
are noted for the north-central and eastern basin. Gentle to
moderate ENE to E trades and seas of 3 to 4 ft prevail for the
remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, fresh winds near the Gulf of Honduras will
diminish through tonight. Fresh to occasionally strong trade winds
will pulse near the coast over the south-central basin through
mid week. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will diminish across
the basin by late week. A cold front will enter the far northwest
basin by Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is generating widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms from the northwest Bahamas northward to
beyond 31N, between 73W and the Georgia-Florida coast. An upper-
level low near 24N50W is producing scattered moderate convection
well southeast of Bermuda from 22N to 26N between 54W and 59W.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for
additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

The southwestern end of the 1030 mb Azores High is promoting light
to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft north of 22N between 50W
and 73W. To the west, moderate to locally fresh ENE to E winds
with 5 to 7 ft seas are found north of 22N between 73W and the
Georgia-Florida coast. To the east, moderate to locally fresh NNE
to ENE trades and seas at 5 to 7 ft exist north of 20N between the
northwest African coast and 50W. Further south, gentle to moderate
NE to ENE trades and 4 to 7 ft seas are present from 10N to
20N/22N between the central African coast and the Lesser Antilles.
Light to gentle with locally moderate monsoonal and southerly
winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Atlantic
Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the weak trough off northeast
Florida and north of the Bahamas will lift northward and dissipate
tonight as a broad high pressure builds over the western
Atlantic. The high pressure will shift east through mid week ahead
of a cold front expected to move off the coast of northeast
Florida late Thu. The front will continue southeastward and reach
from Bermuda to eastern Cuba Sat, and from 31N60W to the Windward
Passage Sun.

$$

Chan
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