[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112356
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Oct 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Karl forms in the Bay of Campeche. At 12/0000
UTC, Karl is centered near 20.1N 94.8W or 100 nm ENE of Veracruz
Mexico moving NW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45
kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is observed
from 21N to 24N between 92W and 96W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 18N to 24N between
90W and 97W. On the forecast track, Karl will be approaching the
coast of Mexico on Thursday. Gradual strengthening is expected
for the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening on
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the
Mexican coastline in the watch area, from Cabo Rojo to Puerto
Veracruz, starting Thursday. heavy rainfall are expected across
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, and over the Southern Sierra Madre
Oriental and adjacent coast. Swells generate by Karl are expected
to effect the Mexican coastline for the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
hhttps://ww.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT@.shtml and the latest Karl
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection are noted
over W Africa and coastal waters, roughly from Liberia to
southern Senegal likely associated with the next tropical wave
forecast to move off the African coast in about 12-24 hours based
on the Tropical Wave Diagnostics.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 27W, from 03N to
16N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are behind the wave axis affecting the Cabo Verde
Islands.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 44W, from 05N to
17N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is where the waves meets the ITCZ, particularly from
06N to 12N, between 40W and 48W.

Another tropical wave extends along 61W, from 07N to 18N, moving
west at 10 kt. The wave is generating some shower and thunderstorm
activity over the Lesser Antilles. Convection increases over the
NE Venezuela likely associated with the wave. Moisture related to
this wave will continue affect mainly the Windward Islands and
northern Venezuela tonight and Wed.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 08N30W. The ITCZ continues from 08N30W to 09N42W where
the convergent flow is interrupted by a tropical wave. Then, the
ITCZ continues west of the wave from 09N45W to 05N57W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to
11N between 26W and 50W. Scattered moderate convection is N of
the ITCZ to about 10N W of 50W.

A portion of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the SW Caribbean.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for more information on
recently upgraded Tropical Storm Karl located over the Bay of
Campeche. Aircraft and scatterometer data show a closed circulation
with a relatively large radius of maximum winds and a broad area
of light and variable winds near the center. NW winds of 30-35
kt are observed near the Veracruz area, with seas of 8 to 12 ft
based on altimeter data. The fresh to strong winds extends
within about 120 nm in the northern semicircle of Karl. Elsewhere
across the Gulf moderate to locally fresh winds prevail with seas
of 5 to 8 ft, except 3 to 5 ft over the NE part of the Gulf.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Karl will move to 20.3N 94.9W
Wed morning, 21.1N 95.3W Wed afternoon, 21.2N 96.0W Thu morning,
20.7N 96.3W Thu afternoon, 20.2N 96.6W Fri morning, and move
inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 19.9N 97.0W Fri
afternoon. A cold front will enter the northwest Gulf by Thu. The
front will reach the central Gulf Fri, and move southeast of the
Gulf Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the Lesser Antilles. Please,
refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details. The
pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and lower
pressure over the SW Caribbean Sea is supporting moderate to
fresh easterly winds across the basin. Seas are 6-8 ft over the
south-central Caribbean according to an altimeter pass, 4-6 ft
across the remainder of the east and central Caribbean and 3-5 ft
in the NW Caribbean. Some convective activity is noted over the
Greater Antilles due to local effects.

For the forecast, fresh winds over northwest Caribbean will
diminish through tonight. Fresh to occasionally strong trade
winds will pulse near the coast over the south-central Caribbean
through mid week. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will
diminish across the basin by late week. A cold front will enter
the far northwest Caribbean by Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N65W to near Cape Canaveral,
Florida. A few showers are along the frontal boundary. Fresh to
strong NE winds are between the front and high pressure over the
SE CONUS. A surface trough extends 29N55W to 23N65W. Scattered
showers and isolated tstms are within about 120 nm on the E side
of the trough from 23N-27N. A weak pressure gradient dominates
the remainder of the waters W of 55W. E of 55W, high pressure of
1029 mb located over the western Azores extends a ridge across
the remainder of the atlantic forecast waters. Mainly moderate
to locally fresh NE winds are noted per scatterometer data from
10N to 30N E of 50W. Seas generally 5-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the A stationary front will dissipate
as it lifts northward through tonight. A cold front will move
off the coast of northeast Florida late Thu. The front will continue
southeastward and reach from Bermuda to eastern Cuba Sat.

$$
GR
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