[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110917
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Oct 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A broad surface trough near the west coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula is generating sporadic deep convection across the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico, southeastern Mexico and western
Guatemala. Heavy rain will increase the chance of flash flooding
and mudslides, especially at hilly terrains. In the Gulf waters
including the Bay of Campeche, heavy showers can cause reduced
visibilities; fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas
are also expected. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for some development, and there is a medium chance for
this system to become a tropical depression at the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico over the next 24 hours. Please read the Tropical
Weather Outlook issued by NHC at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 for more detail.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave position was adjusted to near
28W from just west of the Cabo Verde Islands at 17N southward, and
moving west near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
across the islands from 12N to 16N between 22W and 25W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave was introduced into the tropics
from the mid latitudes near 39W, south of 18N, moving west at 10
to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active from 08N to 10N
between 35W and 40W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is east of the Windward Islands
near 56W/57W from 16N southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are active over the
Leeward Islands.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Senegal-Gambia
border to southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands at 12N20W. The ITCZ
extends from 09N30W to 07N38W, and from 07N40W to 07N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is active from 06N to 09N between
41W and 45W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near northwest
Colombia and adjacent Caribbean waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for more information on
the potential for tropical cyclone development in the
southwestern Gulf.

Recent Buoy observations and a scatterometer satellite pass
indicate fresh to strong winds across the central and southwest
Gulf, along with associated rough seas. Stronger gusts are
possible near scattered showers and thunderstorms. Farther to the
northeast, a stationary front extends west- southwestward from
near Bradenton, Florida to the central Gulf. Moderate winds and
seas are evident elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast, outside of the southwest Gulf, the stationary
front from near Bradenton, Florida to 26N93W will lift northward
as a weak warm front over the eastern and central Gulf today while
gradually dissipating. Looking ahead, a cold front will enter the
northwest Gulf by Thu. The front will reach the central Gulf Fri,
and move southeast of the Gulf Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper low centered near 13N70W is supporting a few showers and
thunderstorms around its periphery, over the eastern and south-
central Caribbean. Showers and thunderstorms are also active
along the monsoon trough over the far southwest Caribbean, just
north of Panama. Fresh winds are still active over the far
northwest Caribbean, north of of Honduras and east of Belize.
Fresh E winds are also active over the south-central Caribbean.
Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the fresh winds over northwest Caribbean will
diminish through tonight, while Fresh to occasionally strong trade
winds pulsing near the coast over the south-central Caribbean
will diminish by mid week. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will
diminish across the basin by late week. Looking ahead, a cold
front will enter the far northwest Caribbean by Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak disturbance aloft in the subtropical jet stream is
supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms north of 29N
between 65W and 75W, along a stationary front reaching from
31N72W to east-central Florida. A weak pressure pattern is
maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
west of 55W. Farther east, an upper low is centered near 25N50W,
with an associated surface trough from 32N50W to 25N55W. Farther
east, moderate to fresh trades persist, with 5 to 7 ft seas,
except for wave heights to 8 ft near 15N50W in lingering NE swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will dissipate at it
lifts northward through tonight. Looking ahead, a new cold front
will move off the coast of northeast Florida late Thu, and reach
from Bermuda to eastern Cuba Sat.

$$
Christensen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net