[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Oct 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A broad surface trough near the west coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula is generating sporadic deep convection across the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico, southeastern Mexico and western
Guatemala. Heavy rain will increase the chance of flash flooding
and mudslides, especially at hilly terrains. In the Gulf waters
including the Bay of Campeche, heavy showers can cause reduced
visibilities; fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas
are also expected. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for some development, and there is a medium chance for
this system to become a tropical depression at the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico over the next 24 hours. Please read the Tropical
Weather Outlook issued by NHC at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 for more detail.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 28W from just west of
the Cabo Verde Islands at 16N southward, and moving W near 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 27W
and 30W, and near the southern Cabo Verde Islands.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is east of the Windward Islands near
54W from 16N southward, and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen near and just east of
the Lesser Antilles.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Senegal-Gambia
border to southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands at 11N19W. Scattered
showers are occurring south of the trough near the coast of
Guinea and Sierra Leone. An ITCZ meanders westward from 08N30W
across 06N40W to northeast of the French Guiana-Brazil border at
06N50W. Scattered moderate convection can be found up to 180 nm
along either side of the ITCZ.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near northwest
Colombia and adjacent Caribbean waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for more information on
potential tropical cyclone development, heavy rain and rough seas
at the southwestern Gulf.

A stationary front extends west-southwestward from near Sarasota,
Florida to the central Gulf. Widely scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are present up to 40 nm along either side of this
feature. Gentle to moderate NE to ENE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft
are evident over the eastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE
winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf, except
the southwestern Gulf.

For the forecast, the stationary front will lift northward as a
weak warm front over the eastern and central Gulf into Tue while
gradually dissipating. Expect mainly moderate to fresh NE winds
across much of the Gulf through early Tue. Fresh to strong NW
winds and moderate to rough seas will persist over the far
southwest Gulf off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico through Tue.
Looking ahead, a cold front will move into the northwest Gulf
early Thu, extend across the central Gulf Fri, and move southeast
of the Gulf Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent surface winds ahead of a surface trough over the
central basin is producing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms near the Windward Passage, Jamaica and southeastern
Cuba. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections
for additional weather in the basin. Moderate to fresh with locally
strong ENE to ESE trades and seas at 5 to 7 ft exist at the
south-central basin and northwestern corner of the basin. Moderate
to locally fresh E to ESE trades with 4 to 6 ft seas are found at
the eastern and north-central basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to
ESE trades and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the remainder of the
basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough
seas will persist across the far northwest Caribbean overnight.
Fresh to occasionally strong trade winds pulsing near the coast
over the south-central Caribbean will diminish by mid week.
Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will diminish across the basin
by late week. Looking ahead, a cold front will enter the far
northwestern basin by Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from just north of Bermuda across
31N72W to near Melbourne, Florida. Widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are up to 40 nm along either side of the
front. Two surface troughs are generating scattered moderate
convection north of the southeast Bahamas from 23N to 28N between
67W and 72W, and in the central Atlantic north of 22N between 50W
and 56W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves
sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

The 1030 mb Azores High and its related ridge are supporting light
to gentle with locally moderate E to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas
north of 20N between 50W and the Georgia-Florida coast. To the
east, moderate to locally fresh NNE to ENE trades and seas of 4 to
7 ft are evident north of 20N between the African coast and 50W.
Farther south, gentle to moderate ENE trades and 5 to 8 ft seas
are found from 10N to 20N between the Cabo Verde Islands and
Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle monsoonal and southerly winds
with seas at 3 to 6 ft in southerly swell prevail for the rest of
the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will be
reinforced tonight and move slight southward. The front will stall
from near Bermuda to east-central Florida by late Tue, then
dissipate as it lifts northward through mid week. Looking ahead,
a cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida late
Thu, and reach from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Fri night to early
Sat morning.

$$

Chan
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