[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111608
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Oct 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche is producing
a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Surface pressures are
falling in the region, and radar from Mexico indicates the system
is becoming better organized. Heavy rain will increase the chance
of flash flooding and mudslides, especially in hilly terrain. In
the Gulf waters including the Bay of Campeche, heavy showers can
cause reduced visibilities; fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and 6
to 9 ft seas are also expected. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for further development, and there is a
medium chance that a tropical depression could form within the
next 48 hours while the system meanders NW in the SW Gulf of
Mexico. Please read the Tropical Weather Outlook issued by NHC at
www.nhc.noaa.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 27W, from 03N to
16N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 12N to 18N, between 21W and 28W, including the
majority of the Cabo Verde Islands.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 42W, from 05N to
17N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 06N to 10N, between 36W and 49W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave extends along 60W, from 07N to
18N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 12N to 17N, between 56W and 63W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N17W to 08N29W. The ITCZ continues from 08N29W to 07N40W where
the convergent flow is interrupted by a tropical wave. The ITCZ
continues west of the wave from 06N44W to 05N51W. Scattered weak
convection is observed south of these boundaries from 03N to 07N,
between 16W and 41W.

A portion of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the SW Caribbean.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for more information on
the potential for tropical cyclone development in the
southwestern Gulf.

The disturbance in the SW Gulf is degrading marine conditions. A
buoy in the north central Bay of Campeche is reporting 25 kt
easterly winds and 8 ft seas on a building trend. The buoy camera
is showing fairly low clouds and limited visibility in heavy rain.
Outside of the immediate impacts from this disturbance, easterly
winds are moderate to fresh with 5-7 ft seas in the western Gulf.
Conditions are more favorable in the eastern Gulf with moderate
easterly winds and 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, a stationary front from near Bradenton, Florida
to 26N90W will lift northward as a weak warm front over the
eastern and central Gulf today while gradually dissipating. Fresh
to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will persist over the
southwest Gulf through mid week near an area of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further
development of this area of low pressure, and a tropical
depression could form within the next day or two while the system
moves slowly northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
After that time, increasing upper-level winds are likely to hinder
additional development while it meanders in the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico. A cold front will enter the northwest Gulf by Thu. The
front will reach the central Gulf Fri, and move southeast of the
Gulf Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure
over the SW Caribbean Sea is supporting moderate to fresh easterly
winds across the basin. Seas are 5-7 ft in the central Caribbean
and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh winds over northwest Caribbean will
diminish through tonight. Fresh to occasionally strong trade winds
will pulse near the coast over the south-central Caribbean
through mid week. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will diminish
across the basin by late week. A cold front will enter the far
northwest Caribbean by Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N71W to 28N80W along the central
coast of Florida. A few weak showers are noted along this
feature. NW of the boundary winds are moderate to fresh from the
NE with 5-7 ft seas. SE of the boundary winds are gentle with 3-5
ft seas. Winds gradually increase southward, becoming moderate
easterlies south of 20N, where seas are 5-7 ft. Moderate easterly
winds also dominate the central Atlantic, with 5-7 ft seas. In the
eastern Atlantic moderate to locally fresh NE winds are
generating 5-7 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front from 31N73W to
near Palm Bay, Florida will dissipate as it lifts northward
through tonight. A cold front will move off the coast of northeast
Florida late Thu. The front will continue southeastward and reach
from Bermuda to eastern Cuba Sat.

$$
Flynn
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