[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091024
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Oct 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Julia is centered near 12.4N 84.0W at 09/0900 UTC or
30 nm NNW of Bluefields Nicaragua moving W at 14 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Numerous strong thunderstorms are
noted within about 90 nm of the center with scattered moderate to
strong convection extending up to 480 nm from the center in outer
rain bands. The peak seas near the center are 18 ft, limited by
the proximity of the land. Julia will be entirely onshore over
Nicaragua later this morning. Weakening is expected as this
happens, but it is forecast to still be a tropical storm when it
moves off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua late today or tonight.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory and Forecast/Advisory
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 20W, south
of 18N, moving W at 10 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is evident from 11N to 13N between 18W and 20W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 42W, south of
16N, moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is noted near
the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 07N25W to 06N30N. The ITCZ extends from
06N39W to 07N43W, and from 08N45W to 08N51W. Scattered moderate
convection is found from 08N to 10N and between 52W and 58W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from near Cedar Key, Florida to 27N90W, and
then is stationary to Brownsville, Texas. Ship, buoy and platform
observations show moderate to fresh NE winds north of the front,
mainly across the coastal waters of the northern Gulf. A trough is
analyzed across the far southwest Gulf, and fresh NW winds are
funneling along the coast of Veracruz, Mexico west of the trough.
Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast, the front will continue south and reach from
near Port Charlotte, Florida to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico in the
southwest Gulf by late today. The western half of the front will
dissipate Mon as the eastern portion stalls across the southeast
Gulf. The front will then lift north Tue while dissipating. Expect
increasing NE winds across much of the basin through late Mon as
the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure across the
Gulf region and lower pressure in the western Caribbean. An area
of fresh to strong NW winds and moderate to rough seas will
persist over the far southwest Gulf off the coast of Veracruz,
Mexico through Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more details on
Hurricane Julia along the coast of Nicaragua.

The pressure gradient associated with the broad ridge over the
central United States and Hurricane Julia sustain moderate to
locally strong E-NE winds in the western Caribbean Sea. Recent
buoy observations along with data from an earlier scatterometer
satellite pass indicate that fresh to strong northerly winds are
found in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the NW
Caribbean Sea, just outside of the influence of Julia. Moderate to
fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 3-6 ft are noted in the
rest of the central and eastern Caribbean.

Water vapor imagery depict an upper level low near the Leeward
Islands. Abundant moisture and divergence aloft result in isolated
to scattered showers affecting the eastern Caribbean waters, the
Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

For the forecast, Hurricane Julia will move inland over Nicaragua
this morning and weaken to a tropical storm near 12.5N 86.2W this
afternoon. Winds and seas will diminish today, but persist over
the northwest Caribbean west of 85w through Tue. Generally
moderate winds and seas will persist elsewhere through mid week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is off northeast Florida from 31N78W to St Augustine
Florida. Farther east, a weak stationary front reaches from 31N63W
to 28N72W, with a trailing trough extending over the northern
Bahamas to the Straits of Florida. A few showers may be active
along the stationary front. Gentle to moderate breezes and
moderate seas persist west of 55W, except for fresh E winds
funneling along the north coast of Hispaniola. Farther east, an
upper low is centered over 26N48W, with an associated surface
trough from 27N44W to 20N51W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are active within 60 nm either side of the surface trough. Moderate winds and
seas are noted elsewhere west of 50W. Farther east, seas are 6 to
8 ft in NE swell are evident from 10N to 20N between 35W and 50W.
Moderate winds and seas persist elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front off northeast
Florida will drift south and stall from 31N72W to near Fort
Pierce, Florida tonight. The front will meander little into Tue
before dissipating by through late Tue. Winds will increase
slightly north of 29N through mid week as high pressure builds
north of the area.

$$
Christensen
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