[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091801
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Oct 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Julia, at 09/1800 UTC, is near 12.4N
86.2W, or about 35 km/19 nm to the NNE of Managua in Nicaragua,
and about 355 km/192 nm to the ESE of San Salvador in El Salvador.
Julia is moving W, or 270 degrees, 14 knots. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 996 mb. The maximum sustained wind
speeds are 50 knots with gusts to 60 kt. Tropical storm force
winds are within: 80 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, within
60 nm of the center in the SE quadrant, within 50 nm of the center
in the SW quadrant, and within 80 nm of the center in the NW
quadrant. The sea heights that are 12 feet or higher are within:
165 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, within 135 nm of the
center in the SE quadrant, within 0 nm of the center in the SW
quadrant, and within 0 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The
maximum sea heights are reaching 13 feet. The wind speeds are
ranging from 20 knots to 33 knots, and the sea heights are ranging
from 8 feet to 11 feet, elsewhere, from 12N to 18N between 78W
and 84W, including within 60 nm of the coast of Nicaragua. The
wind speeds are 20 knots or less, and the sea heights are reaching
8 feet in mixed swell, in the remainder of the area that is from
14N to 17N between 80W and 84W. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is from 200 nm to 400 nm of the
center in the NW quadrant, from 15N to 19N between 83W and 90W,
that includes parts of the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, all of
Belize, and parts of eastern Guatemala. Scattered moderate to
widely scattered strong is elsewhere within a radius of 200 nm of
the center. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, and the latest
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml,for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W/22W, from 16N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is between Africa and the tropical
wave, and within 270 nm to the west of the tropical wave from the
ITCZ to 14N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/44W, from 16N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 06N to 11N between the tropical
wave and 51W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to 09N20W. The ITCZ is along 07N from 23W to
44W, and along 07N/08N between 43W and 60W. Precipitation: widely
scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated strong, is from the
ITCZ to 16N between 50W and 60W. It is possible that this
precipitation may be related also to the area of upper level
cyclonic wind flow that encompasses parts of the Caribbean Sea and
the Atlantic Ocean. Please, read the CARIBBEAN SEA section for
more details. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the
remainder of the area within 210 nm to the north of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through 31N76W, to Florida near 28N82W, to the
central Gulf of Mexico near 26N90W. A dissipating stationary
front continues from 26N90W to the NE coast of Mexico, just to the
south of Texas. A stationary front passes through 31N64W, to the
NW Bahamas, to the Straits of Florida near 23N83W and the coast
of Cuba. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in
the SE corner of the Gulf of Mexico from 25N southward from 88W
eastward. Isolated moderate is from the dissipating stationary
front southward from 90W westward.

Moderate to fresh NE winds are to the north of the front, mainly
in the coastal waters of the northern Gulf. Fresh NW winds are
funneling along the coast of Veracruz in Mexico. Moderate winds
and seas are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front extending from Tampa, Florida to the central gulf
near 26N90W transitions to a dissipating stationary front to the
NE Mexico offshore waters. The western half of the front will
dissipate tonight as the eastern portion stalls across the
southeast Gulf on Mon. The front will move northward on Tue while
dissipating. Expect increasing NE winds across much of the basin
through late Mon as the pressure gradient tightens between Gulf of
Mexico high pressure and lower pressure in the western Caribbean
Sea. An area of fresh to strong NW winds, and moderate to rough
seas, will persist in the far southwest Gulf off the coast of
Veracruz, Mexico through Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more details about
Tropical Storm Julia.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers parts of the Atlantic Ocean
and the Caribbean Sea, from 23N southward between 56W and Jamaica.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is on the western side of
the area of cyclonic wind flow. The dry air is to the northwest of
the line 23N61W 14N70W, which includes Hispaniola, the Windward
Passage, the SE half of Cuba, and the surrounding waters.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate, and
isolated strong, cover the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean
from 22N southward between 57W and 74W. Isolated moderate is
moving into and developing in Hispaniola. Other areas of isolated
moderate are between Puerto Rico and Jamaica. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are in the remainder of the area that is from Jamaica
southward from 74W westward.

The pressure gradient, that is associated with the broad central
U.S.A. ridge and Tropical Storm Julia, is sustaining moderate to
locally strong E to NE winds in the western Caribbean Sea. Fresh
to strong northerly winds are in the Gulf of Honduras. The sea
heights are ranging from 4 feet to 6 feet in the NW Caribbean
Sea, just outside the influence of Julia. Moderate to fresh
easterly trade winds, and sea heights that range from 3 feet to 6
feet, are in the rest of the central and eastern Caribbean Sea.

Tropical Storm Julia inland Nicaragua near 12.4N 85.4W 993 mb at
11 AM EDT moving W at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts
75 kt. Julia will move to 12.5N 87.5W this evening, 13.2N 89.6W
Mon morning, weaken to a tropical depression near 14.0N 91.9W Mon
evening, and dissipate Tue morning. The winds and the seas will
diminish tonight in the Central America offshore waters, but
persist in the Gulf of Honduras through Mon night. Generally
moderate winds and seas will persist elsewhere through mid week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N76W, to Florida near 28N82W, to the
central Gulf of Mexico near 26N90W. A dissipating stationary
front continues from 26N90W to the NE coast of Mexico, just to the
south of Texas. A stationary front passes through 31N64W, to the
NW Bahamas, to the Straits of Florida near 23N83W and the coast
of Cuba. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 90 nm to the east and southeast of the stationary front
northward and northwestward, including between the two frontal
boundaries.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are from 20N
northward between 45W and 70W. A surface trough is along 32N44W
27N50W 17N56W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered
moderate, and isolated strong, is from 21N northward between 42W
and 56W.

Moderate winds and seas are elsewhere west of 50W. The sea heights
range from 6 feet to 8 feet in NE swell from 10N to 20N between
35W and 50W. Moderate winds and seas are in the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front extending from 31N75W to Cape Canaveral, Florida
will drift south and stall from 31N72W to near Fort Pierce,
Florida tonight. The front will meander little into Tue before
dissipating by through late Tue. The winds will increase slightly
north of 29N through mid week, as high pressure builds north of
the area.

$$
MT
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