[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Oct 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0555 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Julia is centered near 12.5N 83.3W at 09/0600 UTC or 40
nm NE of Bluefields Nicaragua, moving W at 14 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 80 kt with gusts to 95 kt. Numerous strong thunderstorms are
noted within about 60 nm of the center with scattered moderate to
strong convection extending up to 480 nm from the center in outer
rain bands. The peak seas near the center are 27 ft. A continued
westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center
of Julia is expected to make landfall within the warning area on
the coast of Nicaragua shortly, then move across Nicaragua later
today. Strengthening is possible until the center makes landfall
in Nicaragua. Weakening is expected once Julia moves inland, but
it is forecast to still be a tropical storm when it moves off the
Pacific coast of Nicaragua late today or tonight.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory and Forecast/Advisory
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 19W, south of
18N, moving W at 10 kt. A few weak showers are seen near the
trough axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 41W, south of
16N, moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is noted near
the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 04N26W to 05N37N. Isolated to widely scattered
moderate convection is noted on satellite imagery from 02N to 10N
and between 26W and 38W. Scattered moderate convection is found
from 07N to 11N and between 48W and 58W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front continues to slowly sag southward over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico, extending from the Big Bend region to near
28N87W, where it transitions into a stationary front that
continues westward into southern Texas. In the Bay of Campeche, a
weak surface trough extends from near Tuxpan to Campeche. A few
showers are occurring near the trough axis. Recent scatterometer
satellite data and surface observations show that moderate to
fresh NE winds prevail across the Gulf, except for weaker winds in
the NE Gulf. Seas of 3-6 ft are prevalent across the basin, except
for 1-3 ft in the NE Gulf.

For the forecast, a cold front currently moving across the northern
Gulf waters will reach from near Lake Okeechobee to the SW Gulf
by Sun morning, then stall over the southeastern Gulf on Mon,
and lift northward on Tue while dissipating. Expect increasing
NE winds across much of the basin Sun afternoon through late Mon
as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure across
the Gulf region and lower pressure in the western Caribbean. An
area of fresh to strong NW winds and moderate to rough seas will
persist over the far southwest Gulf off the coast of Veracruz,
Mexico Sun through Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more details on
Hurricane Julia near the coast of Nicaragua.

The pressure gradient associated with the broad ridge over the
central United States and Hurricane Julia sustain moderate to
locally strong E-NE winds in the western Caribbean Sea. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass indicate that fresh to strong
northerly winds are found in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 3-6 ft
in the NW Caribbean Sea, just outside of the influence of Julia.
Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 3-6 ft are
noted in the rest of the central and eastern Caribbean.

Water vapor imagery depict an upper level low approaching the
Leeward Islands. Abundant moisture and divergence aloft result in
isolated to scattered showers affecting the eastern Caribbean
waters, the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

For the forecast, newly upgraded Hurricane Julia is near 12.5N
82.7W 988 mb at 11 PM EDT, moving W at 14 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Julia will move inland over
Nicaragua and weaken to a tropical storm near 12.5N 84.7W Sun
morning. Julia will continue west through Nicaragua and enter the
Pacific Sun evening, weaken to a depression by Mon evening and
dissipate Tue morning. Strong winds and rough seas over the
southwest Caribbean will diminish through Sun, but persist over
the northwest Caribbean west of 85w through Tue. Generally
moderate winds and seas will persist elsewhere through mid week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating stationary front extends from the NW Bahamas to
31N62W, supporting scattered showers near the trough axis,
especially near the Bahamas. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds are found S of 26N and W of 55W, along with seas of 3-6 ft.
In the rest of the waters W of 55W, light to gentle winds and seas
of 2-4 ft prevail. Farther east, a large upper level low is found
near 26N48W, producing a scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection from 20N to 30N and between 40W and 52W.

The remainder of the basin is dominated by an expansive
subtropical ridge positioned near 35N37W, maintaining fairly
tranquil weather conditions. The pressure gradient between the
high pressure and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustain
moderate to fresh easterly winds from 10N to 27N and between 30W
and 48W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front off northeast Florida
from 31N79W to Jacksonville Florida will stall from 31N73W to
near Lake Okeechobee in Florida Sun, then stall from near Bermuda
to South Florida Mon and Tue while gradually dissipating. Looking
ahead, another weak cold front will move into the waters north of
29N late Tue and Wed.

$$
DELGADO
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