[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082118
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Oct 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Julia is centered near 12.6N 81.3W at 08/2100 UTC
or 50 nm S of Isla De Providencia Colombia moving W at 15 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous strong
thunderstorms are noted within about 60 nm of the center with
scattered moderate to strong convection extending up to 480 nm
from the center in outer rain bands. Tropical storm force winds
extend up to 50 nm in the south semicircle, 180 nm in the
northeast quadrant, and 90 nm in the northwest quadrant. The peak
seas near the center are estimated at 20 ft. Environmental
conditions favor strengthening this evening and tonight before
Julia reaches the coast of Nicaragua, especially if the recent
burst of deep convection can remain near or over the center. As
such, Julia is still forecast to become a hurricane within the
next 12 hours. After landfall, fast weakening is expected, but
Julia is forecast to be at or near tropical storm strength when it
emerges off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua due to its fast
transit across the country. Rainfall of 6-12 inches is forecast
over San Andres and Providencia, Colombia, 5-10 inches with
isolated 15 inches over Nicaragua, and 4-8 inches isolated 12
inches over the remainder of Central America, through Tue. Life-
threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across
portions of Central America this weekend. Please consult products
from your local weather office and read the latest NHC Public
Advisory and Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 18W, from 06N to
18N, moving west at around 10 kt. No significant convection is
noted.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 40W/41W, from 03N
to 16N, moving west at around 10 kt. No significant convection is
noted.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast near the border of
Guinea-Bissau and Guinea near 11N15W to 07N18N. The ITCZ
extends from 07N20W to 05N37W where the convergent flow is
interrupted by a tropical wave. The ITCZ continues west of the
wave from 04N43W to 02N51W along the NE coast of Brazil. Isolated
to widely scattered moderate convection is observed from 01N to
08N between 21W and 35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extends from northern Florida near 29N83W to
offshore the northern Gulf through 28N90W to near Corpus Christi,
Texas at 27N97.5W. No convection is noted near the front with
moderate to fresh NE winds and 2-3 ft seas behind/north of it. A
surface trough is analyzed over eastern Mexico near 24N98.5W to
across the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche to 18.5N92W. Scattered
showers are occurring near and east of the trough. Earlier
scatterometer data showed fresh to strong NW-N winds and seas of
3-5 ft west of the trough. Elsewhere, the gradient between high
pressure ridging over the Gulf and Tropical Storm Julia in the SW
Caribbean is supporting moderate to locally fresh NE winds across
the basin with 2-4 ft seas, on a building trend.

For the forecast, a cold front currently moving across the
northern Gulf waters will reach from near Lake Okeechobee to the
SW Gulf by Sun morning, then stall over the southeastern Gulf on
Mon, and lift northward on Tue while dissipating. Expect
increasing NE winds across much of the basin Sun afternoon through
late Mon as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure
across the Gulf region and lower pressure in the western
Caribbean. An area of fresh to strong NW winds and moderate to
rough seas will persist over the far southwest Gulf off the coast
of Veracruz, Mexico Sun through Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more details on
Tropical Storm Julia in the southwest Caribbean Sea.

Marine impacts from Tropical Storm Julia extend throughout the
majority of the basin west of 70W. East of 70W, moderate easterly
winds prevail. In the central Caribbean, winds are fresh to strong
from the east with an abating swell of 6-8 ft from Julia's
passage yesterday. In the NW Caribbean, winds are fresh from the
NE with 4-6 ft seas on a building trend.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Julia near 12.6N 81.3W 992 mb at
5 PM EDT moving W at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts
75 kt. Julia will strengthen to a hurricane near 12.5N 83.3W Sun
morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 12.6N
86.0W Sun afternoon, 12.8N 88.7W Mon morning, weaken to a tropical
depression near 13.3N 91.3W Mon afternoon, and dissipate Tue
morning. An area of fresh to strong easterly winds with moderate
to rough seas over the central Caribbean between Julia and high
pressure NE of the area will diminish by tonight. Similar winds
and seas are expected over the NW Caribbean through Sun night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western Atlantic, a stationary front extends from 31N62W,
across the far NW Bahamas to 25N80W near south Florida. Weak
showers are noted near the front, with scattered thunderstorms
from 23N to 25.5N between 76.5W and 80.5W south of the front.
Moderate to fresh winds are noted within 60 nm along and north of
the boundary. Otherwise, gentle to moderate NE-E winds and 3-5 ft
seas dominate the sub-basin, except 2-4 ft offshore northern
Florida. In the central Atlantic, a surface trough is analyzed
from 31N40W to 25N44W with scattered moderate convection from 25N
to 29N between 41W and 48W. Elsewhere in the central Atlantic,
subtropical high pressure north of the area is supporting mainly
moderate to fresh easterly wind with 5-8 ft seas. The eastern
Atlantic is dominated by moderate to fresh NE winds, except fresh
to strong through Canary Islands passages, and 5-8 ft seas, 4-6 ft
near and south of the Cabo Verde Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will gradually
dissipate through tomorrow. Meanwhile, a cold front currently
located just off the northeast Florida will reach from 31N73W to
near Lake Okeechobee in Florida by Sun morning, then stall from
near Bermuda to South Florida Mon and Tue while gradually
dissipating. Looking ahead, another weak cold front will move into
the waters north of 29N late Tue and Wed.

$$
Lewitsky
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