[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080509
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Oct 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Julia is centered near 12.8N 76.1W at 08/0300 UTC
or 140 nm NW of Barranquilla Colombia moving W at 15 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous strong
thunderstorms are noted from 09N to 17N between 73W and 81W,
within 270 nm of the center. The 12 ft seas extend 120 nm within
the NE quadrant and 90 nm in the NW quadrant with peak seas to 14
ft. Julia will continue moving westward through Saturday night,
with a westward motion at a slower forward speed expected Sunday
and Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Julia is
expected to pass near or over San Andres and Providencia Islands
Saturday evening and then reach the coast of Nicaragua Sunday
morning. Julia or its remnants will then turn west- northwestward
over Central America by Monday. Steady to possibly rapid
strengthening is forecast while Julia moves across the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or two, and the
system is expected to become a hurricane by the time it passes
near or over San Andres and Providencia Islands and reaches the
coast of Nicaragua. Quick weakening is anticipated after Julia
moves inland on Sunday, and it is likely to become a remnant low
or dissipate by Monday. Swells generated by Julia are expected to
reach Jamaica tonight, Providencia and San Andres Islands on
Saturday, and portions of the coast of Central America late
Saturday into Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory and Forecast/Advisory
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 09N18W. The ITCZ continues from 09N18W to 04N33W to the
coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Strong thunderstorms are moving off
the coast of Africa from 09N to 14N and E of 19W, along the
monsoon trough. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to
09N between 25W and 42W.

A portion of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends along the
coast of Costa Rica. Thunderstorms are noted along the monsoon
trough.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure continues to extends across the Gulf. A trough
along the Mexico coast is triggering some showers from 20N to 25N
and W of 95W. Gentle to moderate NE winds are noted across the
basin with 1-3 ft seas.

For the forecast, a cold front is expected to reach the northern
Gulf waters overnight through early Sat morning, move across the
central Gulf Sat, then stall over the southeastern Gulf and
Straits of Florida Sun before dissipating Mon. Expect increasing
NE winds across much of the basin Sun afternoon through late Mon
as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure across the
Gulf region and lower pressure in the western Caribbean. Looking
ahead, winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf through mid
week, except for strong NW winds and rough seas over the far
southwest Gulf off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more details on
Tropical Storm Julia in the south-central Caribbean Sea.

Scattered moderate convection is noted in the NW Caribbean due to
the influence of T.S. Julia. The convection is impacting areas
from the Gulf of Honduras to the Cayman Islands, from 15N to 21N
between 81W and 88W. As T.S. Julia tracks along the south central
Caribbean, sea heights are elevated across the basin. Easterly
winds are fresh to strong and seas rough to very rough between 69W
and 81W. Conditions are moderate throughout the remainder of the
basin.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Julia is near 12.8N 76.1W 999 mb
at 11 PM EDT, moving W at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40
kt with gusts to 50 kt. Julia will move to 12.8N 78.7W Sat
morning, 12.7N 81.5W Sat evening, then strengthen to a hurricane
near 12.8N 83.7W Sun morning. Julia will move inland over
Nicaragua and weaken to a tropical storm near 13.1N 86.1W Sun
evening, then continue to move inland and weaken to a tropical
depression near 13.6N 88.5W Mon morning. Julia will dissipate late
Tue. Strong winds and rough seas will persist over the northwest
Caribbean Mon and Tue, then diminish. Looking ahead, expect
moderate winds and seas across the basin by mid week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western Atlantic, a stationary front extends from 31N63W to
the northern Bahamas to 23N79W. Showers are within 50 nm of the
boundary. Gentle to moderate winds are north of the front with
seas 3 to 5 ft. Isolated thunderstorms are noted from the Lesser
Antilles to the central Atlantic from 15N to 30N between 40W and
63W. Light to gentle winds are noted in the central Atlantic N of
25N with moderate to locally fresh winds S of 25N. Seas range 5-8
ft. In the eastern Atlantic, a tight pressure gradient is causing
fresh to locally strong winds off the Morocco coast and off the
Canary Islands with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Seas range
6-10 ft, with the highest seas near the coast of Morocco/Western
Sahara.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will linger
over the area, and dissipate by late Sat just ahead of another
cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast Sat night. The
second front will sweep southeastward, stall from near Bermuda to
South Florida Sun, then will weaken through Tue. Looking ahead,
another weak front will move into the waters north of 29N late Tue
and Wed.

$$
AReinhart
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