[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080956
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Oct 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0950 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Julia is centered near 12.7N 78.0W at 08/0900 UTC
or 200 nm ESE of Isla De Providencia Colombia moving W at 16 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous strong
thunderstorms are noted within 900 nm of the center. The 12 ft
seas extend 150 nm within the NE quadrant, 90 nm in the NW
quadrant, and 45 nm in the SE quadrant with peak seas to 16 ft.
Julia will intensify to a hurricane later today as the center
moves near San Andres and Providencia Islands. Julia will make
landfall over the coast of Nicaragua tonight, then weaken as it
moves inland over northern Central America, and eventually
dissipates Tue. Swells generated by Julia are reaching Jamaica, Providencia
and San Andres Islands, and will reach portions of the coast of
Central America by late today. These swells are likely to cause
life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory and Forecast/Advisory
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is analyzed along 38W, south of 10N, moving west
at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 02N
to 03N between 37W and 39W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N15W to 08N18W. The ITCZ continues from 08N18W to 05N35W, and
from 04N40W to 00N50W along the coast of Brazil. Scattered
moderate convection is evident from 03N to 05N between 25W and
35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A trough extends across the far western Gulf, along the coast of
Mexico. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh NW
winds funneling along the coast of Veracruz, Mexico in the far
southwest Gulf, west of the trough. Elsewhere, weak high pressure
dominates, supporting light and variable breezes and slight seas
over the northern Gulf, and gentle to moderate E breezes with
moderate seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, a cold front is expected to reach the northern
Gulf waters later this morning, move across the central Gulf
through late today, then stall over the southeastern Gulf and
Straits of Florida Sun before dissipating Mon. Expect increasing
NE winds across much of the basin Sun afternoon through late Mon
as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure across the
Gulf region and lower pressure in the western Caribbean. Looking
ahead, winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf through mid
week, except for occasional strong NW winds and rough seas over
the far southwest Gulf off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more details on
Tropical Storm Julia in the south-central Caribbean Sea.

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are evident over much of
the southwest Caribbean, outside of the immediate area of impact
near Julia, and along the north coast of Honduras. Moderate to
fresh winds are noted outside of the area of Julia. A recent
altimeter satellite pass confirmed seas in excess of 8 ft between
70W and 80W. Moderate seas are noted elsewhere across the eastern
and central Caribbean. Slight seas are evident over much of the
northwest Caribbean, although these seas are building as winds
increase as Julia moves into the southwest Caribbean.

For the forecast, Julia will strengthen to a hurricane near
12.6N 80.4W this afternoon, move to 12.5N 82.9W Sun morning, then move
inland along the coast of Nicaragua and weaken to a tropical
storm near 12.7N 85.2W Sun afternoon. Julia will continue
westward to 13.2N 87.8W Mon morning, weaken to a tropical
depression near 13.8N 89.9W Mon afternoon, and dissipate Tue
morning. Strong winds and rough seas will persist over the
northwest Caribbean Mon and Tue, then diminish. Looking ahead,
expect moderate winds and seas across the basin by mid week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western Atlantic, a stationary front extends from near
31N61W to 28N72W to the northern Bahamas and the Straits of
Florida. Showers are within 50 nm of the boundary. The front
disrupts the subtropical ridge, anchored by a 1021 mb high east
of Bermuda, and 1026 high west of the Azores. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass showed fresh to strong winds
funneling off the higher terrain of Hispaniola. Moderate winds and
seas are noted elsewhere west of 50W. Farther east, seas are 6 to
8 ft in NE swell are evident from 10N to 20N between 35W and 50W.
Moderate winds and seas persist elsewhere. A few showers are
evident near upper lows centered near the Leeward Islands and near
25N45W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will linger
over the area this morning and dissipate later today just ahead
of another cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast
tonight. The second front will sweep southeastward, stall from
near Bermuda to South Florida Sun, then will weaken through Tue.
Looking ahead, another weak front will move into the waters north
of 29N late Tue and Wed. Looking ahead, another weak front will
move into the waters north of 29N late Tue and Wed.

$$
Christensen
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